Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol (MEG): Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish continuation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [7] Report's Core Views - The core driver of the energy and chemical industry is the imbalance between supply and demand, with most products facing supply - side pressure and some having weak demand [2][4][7]. - Crude oil is pressured by off - season supply surplus, and most downstream products are affected by the trend of crude oil prices [2][10]. - Some products have low valuations, but the fundamental weakness restricts their upward movement [4][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market situation: Overnight international oil prices rebounded slightly. WTI rose 0.11%, Brent rose 0.19%, and SC rose 1.26% [8][9]. - Fundamentals: OPEC+ plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause production expansion in the first quarter of next year. Demand in India increased in September, and US commercial crude inventories decreased in the week ending October 24 [10][11]. - Strategy: Hold existing short positions, and consider adding short positions lightly. Focus on the range of 460 - 475 yuan/barrel for SC [12]. LPG - Market situation: On November 3, the PG main contract closed at 4305 yuan/ton, up 0.09% [15]. - Fundamentals: The cost - end is bearish as the price of crude oil has corrected. Supply has decreased slightly, and demand has shown some resilience. Port inventory has increased, while refinery inventory has decreased [16]. - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of 4200 - 4300 yuan/ton [17]. L - Market situation: The L01 contract closed at 7009 yuan/ton, up 0.3% [19]. - Fundamentals: Social inventory is slowly decreasing, and cost support is weakening. Supply is expected to remain loose due to seasonal restart of domestic plants and expected increase in imports. Demand during the peak season lacks restocking motivation [21]. - Strategy: The market is in a contango structure. Industry players can sell at high prices. Hold short positions. Focus on the range of 6750 - 6900 yuan/ton [21]. PP - Market situation: The PP01 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [23]. - Fundamentals: Mid - and upstream inventories are at a high level compared to the same period, and there is high pressure to destock. Oil - based cost support is insufficient [25]. - Strategy: The market is in a contango structure. Industry players can sell at high prices. Hold short positions. Focus on the range of 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton [25]. PVC - Market situation: The V01 contract closed at 4746 yuan/ton, up 0.8% [27]. - Fundamentals: The price of calcium carbide has fallen, weakening cost support. Social inventory is stable, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is continuously compressed. The market has a high - inventory and high - warrant structure [29]. - Strategy: The market is in a contango structure. Industry players can hedge at high prices. Be cautious when short - chasing. Focus on the range of 4550 - 4700 yuan/ton [29]. PX - Market situation: Supply - side domestic plants have reduced production while overseas plants have increased production. Demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken [30]. - Fundamentals: PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high this year. Cost - end crude oil has rebounded, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose [30]. - Strategy: Take profit on short positions at low prices, and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of 6570 - 6660 yuan/ton [31]. PTA - Market situation: The processing fee is low. New plants have been put into operation recently, but future plant maintenance is expected to increase, relieving supply - side pressure [33]. - Fundamentals: Downstream demand has improved slightly, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. Cost - end crude oil is under long - term pressure [33]. - Strategy: Take profit on short positions at low prices. Look for opportunities to short at high prices. Focus on the range of 4520 - 4600 yuan/ton [34]. MEG - Market situation: Both domestic and overseas plants have increased production. There is an expectation of increased supply pressure [36]. - Fundamentals: Terminal consumption has improved, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in November. The valuation is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers [36]. - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of 3910 - 3980 yuan/ton [37]. Methanol - Market situation: High inventory restricts the rebound of spot prices. Supply - side domestic plants have increased production, while overseas plants have slightly reduced production [40]. - Fundamentals: Demand is average, and cost support is weakly stable. The overall fundamental situation remains weak [40]. - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices and consider the MA1 - 5 reverse spread. Focus on the range of 2090 - 2150 yuan/ton [42]. Urea - Market situation: Small - particle urea spot prices have declined. Supply is expected to increase as maintenance plants resume production [44]. - Fundamentals: Demand has improved slightly, but winter agricultural demand and export benefits are limited. The domestic fundamental situation remains loose [44]. - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully. Consider going long lightly in the medium - to - long - term. Focus on the range of 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton [46]. Natural Gas - Market situation: On November 3, the NG main contract closed at $4.369 per million British thermal units, up 3.90% [49]. - Fundamentals: Geopolitical risks have been released, and the demand side is supported by the arrival of the consumption peak season. Supply is relatively sufficient [50]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the range of $4.172 - $4.300 per million British thermal units [51]. Asphalt - Market situation: On November 3, the BU main contract closed at 3244 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [54]. - Fundamentals: The price is mainly affected by crude oil. Cost support has decreased, and supply and demand have both declined in October [55]. - Strategy: Short positions can be lightly held. Focus on the range of 3250 - 3350 yuan/ton [56]. Glass - Market situation: The daily melting volume has increased slightly, and the fundamental situation remains loose [60]. - Fundamentals: Factory inventory is slowly decreasing but remains high. Demand is weak due to the decline in real - estate prices [60]. - Strategy: The market is expected to be bearish on medium - to - long - term rebounds. Focus on the range of 1060 - 1110 yuan/ton [60]. Soda Ash - Market situation: Factory inventory has decreased slightly, but the absolute level remains high [64]. - Fundamentals: Demand is mostly rigid, and supply remains loose during the high - production cycle [64]. - Strategy: The market is in a contango structure. Industry players can sell at high prices. The market is expected to be bearish on rebounds. Focus on the range of 1170 - 1220 yuan/ton [64].
中辉能化观点-20251104
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-11-04 05:08