化工日报：到港量回升，青岛港口库存环比增加-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral [6]. - The investment rating for BR is also neutral [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, with the recovery of domestic arrivals, Qingdao port inventory has rebounded. Despite potential further inventory increases, strong cost - side support due to raw material price firmness in overseas main producing areas may limit short - term downward adjustment. The domestic futures price is undervalued, but with insufficient supply - demand drivers, prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [6]. - For butadiene rubber (BR), the recent price decline is mainly due to cost - side drag. The upstream raw material butadiene has a weak price trend due to increased supply and weakened demand. However, with resilient downstream demand and the current low absolute price, the downward space is expected to be limited [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,095 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,360 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,720 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years [2]. - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; smoked sheet exports were 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; latex exports were 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, standard rubber exports to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; smoked sheet exports to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; latex exports to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [2]. - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. Automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles for the first time in the same period in history, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for 5 consecutive months [3]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 5.3491 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3]. - In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On November 3, 2025, the RU basis was - 495 yuan/ton (- 10), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 495 yuan/ton (+ 60), the NR basis was 769.00 yuan/ton (- 43.00); whole latex was 14,600 yuan/ton (+ 0), mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (- 50), and 3L spot was 15,100 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,830 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 500 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,400 yuan/ton (- 50) [4]. - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.00 Thai baht/kg (- 0.10), Thai rubber latex was 56.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai cup lump was 51.90 Thai baht/kg (- 1.40), and the spread between Thai rubber latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 1.40) [4]. - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.34% (- 0.53%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.12% (- 0.72%) [5]. - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 447,668 tons (+ 15,439), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,038,951 tons (- 11,478), the RU futures inventory was 120,900 tons (- 3,120), and the NR futures inventory was 44,655 tons (+ 2,015) [5]. Butadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and spreads: On November 3, 2025, the BR basis was - 60 yuan/ton (- 75), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton (- 250), the price of private - owned butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,050 yuan/ton (- 300), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,285 yuan/ton (- 211) [5]. - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.90% (- 4.81%) [5]. - Inventories: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,680 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,200 tons (- 1,450) [5]. Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. With the recovery of domestic arrivals, Qingdao port inventory has increased. Although inventory may further increase, strong cost - side support may limit short - term downward adjustment. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [6]. - For BR, maintain a neutral view. The recent price decline is due to cost - side drag, but with resilient downstream demand and low absolute price, the downward space is limited [6].