Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 3,970 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous trading day; the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,065 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton or 1.12%; the spot basis of EG in East China was 76 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$43/ton, down $2/ton month - on - month; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -658 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 56.2 tons, up 3.9 tons month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 49.9 tons, up 1.6 tons month - on - month. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 18.9 tons, and at the secondary ports are 7.4 tons, indicating a high likelihood of inventory accumulation [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is operating at a high level, and future domestic supply is expected to be abundant; overseas, there are still many supply losses, and the import volume is expected to remain stable. On the demand side, with the recent cooling, the downstream of polyester has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3,970 yuan/ton, and the spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,065 yuan/ton. The spot basis of EG in East China was 76 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was -$43/ton, down $2/ton month - on - month; the production profit of coal - made syngas EG was -658 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. International Spread No specific data on international spreads are provided in the report. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the downstream of polyester has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of the main ports in East China was 56.2 tons, up 3.9 tons month - on - month; according to Longzhong data, it was 49.9 tons, up 1.6 tons month - on - month. The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 18.9 tons, and at the secondary ports are 7.4 tons, indicating a high likelihood of inventory accumulation [1]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. Given the high supply, there is significant pressure for inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter, and with many production plans, port inventories are expected to gradually increase [3]. - Inter - period: Go short on EG2601 and long on EG2605. - Inter - variety: No strategy is provided.
化工日报：EG延续累库，主力合约增仓下行-20251104
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-04 05:06