Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has high inventories and a supply surplus, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the sharp reduction in nickel ore supply in the Philippines in the fourth quarter may lead to a rebound in nickel prices [3]. - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, rising inventories, and gradually weakening cost support. Stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,790 yuan/ton and closed at 120,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.26% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 97,352 (- 1,139) lots, and the open interest was 108,671 (- 3,846) lots. The main contract showed a slight oscillatory upward trend. The Fed's hawkish stance strengthened the market's expectation of a cooling of the December interest - rate cut, and the stronger US dollar index may suppress the prices of foreign - market metals. But the RMB exchange - rate fluctuations offset the foreign - market pressure to some extent, and the import cost supported the domestic - market performance. China's comprehensive PMI output index in October remained at the critical point of 50.0%, showing overall economic stability and providing weak support for the demand for industrial metals [1]. - On November 20, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed the electrolytic nickel delivery standard. From this date, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2025 and ASTM B39 - 79(2023) is allowed to be used to make standard warehouse receipts for delivery. From November 18, 2027, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2010 and ASTM B39 - 79(2013) cannot be warehoused to make standard warehouse receipts, but the existing ones can still be used for futures - contract delivery. The new standard improves the quality requirements for delivery products and sets a two - year transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [1]. - The nickel ore market was calm, and prices remained stable. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and factory procurement enthusiasm was low. In the Philippines, increased rainfall in the Surigao mining area may cause delays in shipping. Downstream nickel - iron prices were under pressure, and iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27 [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was okay. Indonesian Yongheng nickel began to flow into the domestic market, and the spot premiums of various brands were slightly adjusted. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse - receipt volume was 31,206 (- 182) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 252,750 (+ 648) tons [2]. Strategy - The strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,675 yuan/ton and closed at 12,630 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 107,662 (- 12,218) lots, and the open interest was 77,047 (- 4,171) lots. The main contract continued the oscillatory weakening trend, mainly affected by the weakening of the black - metal sector [3][4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange updated the daily - target requirements for hot - rolled coil and stainless - steel futures contracts. The new standards mainly improve the quality requirements for delivery products and set a six - month transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [4]. - Market demand remained weak, spot trading was light, and traders faced great pressure to sell. Prices were lowered. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (- 50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 295 - 595 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 922.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].
新能源及有色金属日报：交割标准更改，镍不锈钢价格低幅震荡-20251104
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-04 05:04