新能源及有色金属日报：铜价回落吸引下游逢低采购，价格暂陷震荡格局-20251104

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Suspended; Option: short put [8] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply shortage in the mining sector and the persistently low TC prices remain unchanged. Overseas smelters are exploring new pricing logics, and China's non - ferrous metal supply association proposes to set an upper limit on smelting capacity. The positive factors on the demand side are mostly at the expected level, and actual consumption may not be outstanding. The strategy for November is to mainly conduct buy - hedging on dips, with a suggested buying range of 85,500 - 86,000 yuan/ton, and sell - hedging can be considered when the price approaches 90,000 yuan/ton [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On November 3, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 87,210 yuan/ton and closed at 87,300 yuan/ton, up 0.33% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 87,430 yuan/ton and closed at 86,990 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - SMM 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at a discount of 80 to a premium of 70 yuan/ton, with an average discount of 5 yuan, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The copper price dropped, attracting downstream buyers, but more arrivals made holders eager to sell, pressuring the spot premium. It is expected that downstream buyers will continue to bargain today, and the spot premium is unlikely to rise significantly [2] Important Information Summary - Interest rate: Fed Governor Milan called for more aggressive rate cuts, while Governor Cook said December rate cuts depend on new information. Economic data: The US October ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, contracting for the eighth consecutive month, with new orders falling and production weak [3] Mining End - Tanzania's election unrest closed the Dar es Salaam Port, causing shipping delays and cost increases. Ivanhoe Mines' Prat Reef Phase I concentrator started feeding on October 29, and Indonesia approved Amman Mineral to export 480,000 dry tons of copper concentrate [4] Smelting and Import - Last week, LME copper inventory continued to decline to 134,625 tons. SHFE copper inventory increased 10.83% to 116,140 tons, reaching a six - month high. International copper inventory decreased by 1,422 tons to 15,059 tons. New York copper inventory continued to accumulate to 355,660 tons, the highest since mid - April 2003 [4] Consumption - In October, the copper cable market was sluggish due to high copper prices, with the monthly operating rate between 60% - 63%, down significantly year - on - year. In November, the market is still dominated by rigid demand, and the operating rate is expected to remain low [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 325 tons to 133,600 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 356 tons to 40,066 tons. On November 3, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 200,100 tons, a change of 17,500 tons from the previous week [6][7] Copper Price and Basis Data | Category | Project | 2025 - 11 - 04 | 2025 - 11 - 03 | 2025 - 10 - 28 | 2025 - 10 - 05 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot (Premium/Discount) | SMM: 1 Copper | - 5 | 0 | - 45 | 15 | | | Premium Copper | 60 | 55 | - 5 | 70 | | | Flat - water Copper | - 30 | - 50 | - 75 | - 30 | | | Wet - process Copper | - 100 | - 115 | - 135 | - 80 | | | Yangshan Premium | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | | | LME (0 - 3) | - 14 | - 21 | - 26 | - 43 | | Inventory | LME | 133,600 | 134,625 | 135,975 | 141,725 | | | SHFE | 116,140 | | 104,792 | | | | COMEX | 322,649 | 320,493 | 315,665 | 294,007 | | Warehouse Receipts | SHFE Warehouse Receipts | 40,066 | 39,710 | 35,392 | 26,823 | | | LME Cancelled Warehouse Receipts Ratio | 9.95% | 10.54% | 7.59% | 5.68% | | Arbitrage | CU2602 - CU251 (Continuous Three - Near Month) | 70 | - 40 | - 10 | - 300 | | | CU2512 - CU2511 (Main - Near Month) | 40 | | - 20 | - 20 | - 240 | | | CU12/AL12 | 4.04 | 4.08 | 4.14 | 4.02 | | | CU12/ZN12 | 3.87 | 3.89 | 3.95 | 3.81 | | Import Profit | - 872 | - 793 | - 786 | - 528 | | SHFE - LME Ratio (Main) | 8.07 | 7.99 | 8.03 | 8.07 | [26][27][28][29]