新能源及有色金属日报：下游以长单提货为主，现货散单成交有限-20251104

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy rating: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage strategy rating: On hold [4] Group 2: Core View - The supply of raw materials remains tight, pressuring the production of primary lead, while secondary lead is slowly resuming production. The demand for lead-acid batteries from downstream is suppressed by high lead prices, and production cuts by enterprises have led to weaker consumption. Social inventories are at historical lows, but with the recovery of supply and the arrival of imports, inventories are expected to accumulate in November. Overall, the lead price is constrained by weak consumption on the upside and supported by costs on the downside, and is expected to remain in a volatile pattern. The expected price range is approximately between 16,900 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 3, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -26.48 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot remained unchanged at 17,275 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot remained unchanged at 17,250 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 3, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,390 yuan/ton, closed at 17,420 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 34,978 lots, a decrease of 13,341 lots from the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 68,089 lots, a decrease of 95 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,480 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,350 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price remained flat compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders' quotes were at a discount of 100 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex-factory, with few actual transactions. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at par with SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 170 - 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, holders' quotes were at a premium of 75 - 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex-factory. In Yunnan, holders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 250 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead with small-volume transactions. With the lead price consolidating, downstream battery enterprises were mostly in a wait-and-see mode, mainly taking delivery under long-term contracts, and spot transactions were relatively light [2] Inventory - On November 3, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 3, the LME lead inventory was 216,800 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from the previous trading day [3]