尿素日报：现货跌价成交好转-20251104

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices decreased yesterday, and low - price transactions improved. Short - term fluctuations are expected. In the short term, autumn fertilizer production for agriculture is ongoing in some areas, and the overall operating rate has increased with the recovery of equipment. The production of autumn fertilizers for compound fertilizers is nearing completion, and the inventory of compound fertilizers for winter wheat is mainly being cleared. With the improvement of weather, the sentiment of product sales has improved. The operation of melamine has increased slightly, with rigid demand for procurement. In the long - term, due to the release of new production capacity, the supply and demand of urea will remain relatively loose. Gas - fired equipment maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. The factory inventory decreased last week, and the highest inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, the raw material procurement rhythm, and the national light - storage rhythm. Urea is still affected by export sentiment, and the export policy may change. [2] - Strategies: For single - side trading, expect range - bound fluctuations; for inter - period trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for cross - variety trading, there is no specific strategy. [3] 3. Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - The report provides information on the market prices of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, as well as the basis of the main continuous contracts in Shandong and Henan, and the price of the urea main continuous contract and relevant spreads. [1][6][7] II. Urea Production - The report shows the weekly production of urea and the loss of urea plant maintenance. [17][22] III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes the production cost, spot production profit, and the operating rates of coal - based and gas - based urea production. [25][26][29] IV. Urea Foreign Market Prices and Export Profits - The report presents the FOB prices of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR prices of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB prices of small - sized and large - sized urea in China, and the export profit and on - paper export profit of urea. [31][33][37] V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, as well as the number of days of pending orders. [46][47][48] VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract. [51][54][55] Market Data Summary - Price and Basis: On November 3, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,623 yuan/ton (- 2). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,560 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,560 yuan/ton (- 30), and in Jiangsu was 1,560 yuan/ton (- 20). The price of small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was - 63 yuan/ton (- 28), in Henan was - 63 yuan/ton (- 18), and in Jiangsu was - 63 yuan/ton (- 18). The urea production profit was 30 yuan/ton (- 30), and the export profit was 904 yuan/ton (+ 32). [1] - Supply Side: As of November 3, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.32% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.5543 million tons (- 75,900 tons), and the port sample inventory was 110,000 tons (- 100,000 tons). [1] - Demand Side: As of November 3, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 31.04% (+ 3.33%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.98% (+ 1.68%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 7.53 days (+ 0.12). [1]