农产品日报：消费支撑不足，猪价偏弱震荡-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] Core Views - The supply-demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the pig industry is difficult to change, and the long-term supply pressure is obvious, mainly due to the superposition of consumption decline and supply increase after the Spring Festival; in the egg industry, although the存栏 of laying hens is gradually declining, the supply-demand pattern of oversupply has not changed in the off-season of egg consumption [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,735 yuan/ton, a change of -80.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.68%; Spot: The price of ternary live pigs in Henan was 12.21 yuan/kg, a change of -0.32 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 12.49 yuan/kg, a change of -0.14 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.84 yuan/kg, a change of -0.16 yuan/kg. The national average wholesale price of pork in agricultural product markets was 17.98 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.0% from last Friday; beef was 66.30 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1%; mutton was 63.27 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.7%; eggs were 7.29 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.0%; white-striped chickens were 17.61 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.8% [1] Market Analysis - Next week, the group's pig slaughter is expected to increase. The national inventory of pigs over 5 months old decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and narrowed by 2.4% year-on-year; the number of newborn piglets increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 6.6% year-on-year, with large-scale farms increasing by 1.8% month-on-month and 11% year-on-year. The second-round fattened pigs entering the market this month are also expected to be slaughtered at the end of the year, and the consumption side may not be able to absorb the increased supply, so the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3,158 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of +12.00 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.38%; Spot: The egg price in Liaoning was 2.69 yuan/jin, a change of -0.20 from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.69 yuan/jin, a change of -0.04. On November 3, 2025, the national production link inventory was 1.15 days, an increase of 0.09 days from yesterday, an increase of 8.49%; the circulation link inventory was 1.29 days, an increase of 0.05 days, an increase of 4.03% [3] Market Analysis - In the early part of this month, there was a demand for restocking in supermarkets and e-commerce platforms during the "Double Eleven", and the approaching "Double Twelve" at the end of the month also boosted egg demand, but in the off-season of consumption, the e-commerce marketing activities had limited impact on demand, and the overall demand was still insufficient. Although the存栏 of laying hens is gradually declining, the supply-demand pattern of oversupply has not changed [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]