Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The oil market is in a state of rapid inventory accumulation, with short - term oil prices expected to fluctuate. The precious metals market is waiting for new drivers and is advised to remain on the sidelines. Copper prices have a callback risk after hitting highs. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term. Other commodities also have their own price trends and influencing factors, and the stock and bond markets are also in a state of shock [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - Crude Oil: The oil market has been rapidly accumulating inventory since September, with a 2.8% inventory increase in the fourth quarter. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year, but the market supply - demand surplus may still expand. Short - term oil prices will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after geopolitical risks are priced in [2] - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a supply pattern that is becoming more relaxed, and the previous high valuation faces a correction. The low - sulfur fuel market has short - term support, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is expected to widen further [22] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): The LPG contract continues to fluctuate narrowly. The weekly commodity volume slightly decreases while the arrival volume increases significantly. The demand is expected to improve, and the fundamental improvement still supports the price [24] - Natural Gas: Not mentioned in the content Metal Commodities - Precious Metals: Precious metals continue to fluctuate. The US ISM manufacturing PMI is slightly lower than expected, and the Fed officials have internal differences on interest rate cuts. The market is waiting for new drivers, and it is advisable to remain on the sidelines for now [3] - Base Metals - Copper: The London copper price fell at the end of the session. The US manufacturing PMI has been shrinking, and high domestic copper prices suppress demand. There is a risk of a short - term correction after the price hits a high, and attention should be paid to the support of the MA20 moving average [4] - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuates. The social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased, and the apparent consumption is basically flat year - on - year. The short - term trend is slightly stronger, but the upward space is limited [5] - Zinc: The zinc ingot export window is open. The LME zinc inventory has slightly increased, and the domestic social inventory has decreased. The short - term rebound momentum of Shanghai zinc is strong, and short - term long positions can be considered [8] - Lead: The SMM lead social inventory has slightly increased. The fundamentals are mixed, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,300 - 17,500 yuan/ton [9] - Nickel: The Shanghai nickel price is weakly operating. The downstream demand is weak, and the price support from the upstream is weakening [10] - Tin: The tin price fluctuates softly. The market lacks clear guidance and follows the copper price trend. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies or wait for a clear breakthrough [11] - Alumina: The alumina production capacity is at a historical high, the inventory is rising, and the supply surplus pattern is difficult to change. The price is mainly weak, and the rebound space is limited [7] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The price of Baotai ADC12 has increased. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it is difficult for the cast aluminum alloy to have an independent market and continues to follow the aluminum price [6] - Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures price fluctuates weakly. The global shipment has decreased, and the domestic arrival volume has reached a new high. The iron water production has decreased, and the steel mill profitability is at a new low. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly at a high level [16] - Coke: The coke price fluctuates downward. There is an expectation of a third price increase. The coking profit is average, and the inventory is almost unchanged. The price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [17] - Coking Coal: The coking coal price fluctuates downward. The production of coking coal mines has slightly increased, and the inventory has slightly increased. The price is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [18] - Silicon Manganese: The silicon manganese price fluctuates. The demand is good, the production has slightly decreased, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [19] - Silicon Iron: The silicon iron price fluctuates. The demand is acceptable, the supply is at a high level, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is likely to fluctuate narrowly [20] Chemical Commodities - Methanol: The methanol price has fallen significantly. The import supply is expected to be sufficient, the port inventory may continue to accumulate, and the downstream demand is weak. It is necessary to wait for the supply to shrink and the demand to improve [26] - Pure Benzene: The pure benzene price has fallen. The port inventory has increased significantly, the plant load has slightly increased, and there are medium - term negatives. It is advisable to focus on the port inventory accumulation rhythm and conduct reverse spread trading [27] - Styrene: The styrene price is under pressure. The cost support is insufficient, the supply has slightly decreased, the demand is stable, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to resolve [28] - Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene: The propylene market is dragged down by demand, but the PDH device maintenance provides a buying opportunity. The polyethylene supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The polypropylene supply pressure is expected to increase, and the demand is difficult to release continuously [29] - PVC & Caustic Soda: The PVC price is running at a low level. The cost support is weakening, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable. The caustic soda price is running at a low level, the supply pressure is high, and the demand is average [30] - PX & PTA: The PX and PTA prices are moving downward. The supply of both has increased, the polyester load is stable, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. It is advisable to continue the reverse spread strategy and pay attention to oil price fluctuations [31] - Ethylene Glycol: The ethylene glycol price has fallen. The production has slightly decreased, the port arrival is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is increasing. It is advisable to conduct reverse spread trading and pay attention to the possibility of plant shutdowns [32] Agricultural Commodities - Soybean & Soybean Meal: The soybean meal futures price fluctuates strongly. The US soybean sales are expected to improve, and the domestic soybean arrival is sufficient. It is necessary to pay attention to China's policy adjustment on US soybean imports and look for buying opportunities on dips [36] - Edible Oils: The prices of edible oils are correcting downward. The cost of imported soybeans in China has increased, the domestic soybean crushing profit is still in a loss state, and the palm oil supply is increasing while the demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply from the origin and the performance of the soybean market [37] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed meal futures price has risen, and the rapeseed oil price is expected to be relatively weak. The rapeseed meal market is more affected by Sino - Canadian and Sino - Australian trade relations [38] - Corn: The corn futures price has corrected. The new corn supply in the Northeast is stable, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to operate weakly at the bottom [40] - Hog: The hog spot price has fallen, and the futures price has hit a new low. The supply pressure in the later period is large, and the pig price is expected to have a second bottom - testing in the first half of next year [41] - Egg: The egg futures price is strong. The vegetable price provides support, the in - production inventory is high, and the far - month contract has a high premium. It is advisable to wait for short - selling opportunities in the fourth quarter [42] - Cotton: The US cotton price has risen slightly, and the domestic cotton price fluctuates. The cotton acquisition in the north is basically over, and the demand from downstream spinning mills is general. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiations [43] - Sugar: The US sugar price fluctuates. The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic market focuses on the new sugar - making season's output forecast. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather and sugarcane growth [44] - Apple: The apple futures price is strong. The high - quality apples are priced high, and the low - quality apples have inventory pressure. It is advisable to wait and see [45] - Wood: The wood price is operating weakly. The supply is under pressure, the demand supports the price, and the inventory is low. It is advisable to wait and see [46] - Pulp: The pulp futures price has risen significantly. The port inventory is high, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is general. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - term operations [47] Others - Stock Index: The A - share market has a shrinking - volume rebound, and the futures index is mixed. The geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the market is expected to fluctuate with a slightly positive attitude. It is advisable to focus on the technology - growth sector [48] - Treasury Bond: The treasury bond futures price has closed flat. The bond market interest rate lacks downward momentum, and the yield curve steepening is expected to end [49]
综合晨报-20251104
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-11-04 05:14