中泰期货晨会纪要-20251104

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Based on quantitative indicators, the trends of various futures varieties are judged. Some varieties are considered bearish, some are in a sideways trend, and some are bullish [4]. - The macro - economic situation shows a series of events, including changes in government debt management, corporate business adjustments, international policies, and economic data forecasts, which will have an impact on the financial market [6][7]. - Different strategies are proposed for different sectors of the futures market, such as going long on stock index futures on dips, expecting bonds to rise due to the implementation of monetary policy, and having different views on the trends of black, non - ferrous, agricultural, and energy - chemical products [9][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The Ministry of Finance has established a Debt Management Department to manage government domestic debt [6]. - ICBC's gold accumulation business was suspended and then resumed [6]. - China has extended visa - free policies for 45 countries and resumed group tours to Canada [6]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth [6]. - China's robotics industry revenue increased by 29.5% in the first three quarters of this year [6]. - TSMC may implement a four - year price increase plan for advanced processes starting from 2026 [7]. - Some Fed officials called for more aggressive interest rate cuts, while others said that December rate cuts depend on new information [7]. - US corporate layoffs reached nearly 950,000 as of September, with the government sector being the hardest - hit [7]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Adopt a strategy of going long on dips and pay attention to index rotation. A - shares rebounded after hitting the bottom, but China's October economic data showed a decline, and the fourth - quarter monetary policy is expected to be more accommodative [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - Monetary policy implementation is expected to drive bond prices up. The money market is balanced and loose, and the market expects more accommodative monetary policy in the fourth quarter [10]. Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - In the medium - term winter, maintain a bearish view on rallies. The industry is expected to return to fundamentals in the short - to - medium term. Winter demand is weak, but prices may rebound. However, high inventory and weak demand limit the upside of steel prices [12][13][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - Prices may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Supply is gradually recovering, but policies and iron - water production will affect prices. The potential negative feedback from weak steel demand will limit the upside [16]. Ferroalloys - Silicon iron is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the range. Manganese silicon is recommended to be shorted on rallies due to over - supply [17]. Soda Ash and Glass - It is recommended to wait and see. Soda ash supply is high, and new capacity is yet to be put into production. Glass may see production cuts, but inventory is high [18][19]. Non - Ferrous and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is expected to rise and fluctuate at a high level, but it is recommended to wait and see due to weak domestic demand. Alumina is recommended to be shorted on rallies due to over - supply [21]. Zinc - It is recommended to short on rallies. Domestic zinc inventory has a slight increase, and the market is cautious in purchasing [21][22]. Lithium Carbonate - It will fluctuate in the short term. Demand is good, but supply may increase, which will limit the upside [23]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to go long with a small position at the lower end. Polysilicon will also trade in a range, with policy expectations affecting the price [24][25][26]. Agricultural Products Cotton - It is recommended to wait and see. Supply pressure is increasing, but low prices and potential production shortfalls support the price [28][29]. Sugar - It is recommended to operate with a short - rolling strategy or wait and see. Global sugar supply is in surplus, but domestic costs and import policies affect the price [30][32]. Eggs - It is recommended to trade with a sideways strategy and wait for short - selling opportunities at high prices. Futures are strong due to "capacity - reduction" expectations, but high inventory may limit the upside [33][34]. Apples - Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. The acquisition is in the later stage, and inventory is lower than the same period [35]. Corn - It is recommended to wait and see. Spot prices have rebounded, but new - grain supply pressure and potential wheat substitution may limit the upside [36]. Red Dates - It is recommended to wait and see. Market prices are stable, and attention should be paid to the price changes after the new - season harvest [37]. Pigs - It is recommended to short near - month contracts on rallies. Supply pressure is high, and demand is weak [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Prices are expected to fluctuate. OPEC+ has postponed production increases, but the long - term supply - demand imbalance still exists [40]. Fuel Oil - Prices will follow crude oil prices. Supply is loose, and demand is weak [41]. Plastics - Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Supply pressure is high, and demand is relatively weak [41][42]. Rubber - Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Inventory is increasing, and the market is weak [44]. Methanol - Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly, and far - month contracts can be long - configured in small amounts when there is a rebound drive. Supply is under pressure, but there are potential supply disruptions [45][46]. Caustic Soda - It is recommended to trade with a sideways strategy. Supply exceeds demand, but there are cost supports and risks [47]. Asphalt - Price fluctuations are expected to increase. Crude oil is in a sideways trend, asphalt demand is weakening, and production is expected to increase [48]. Polyester Industry Chain - Prices are expected to continue to be weak in the short term. Cost support is limited, and supply - demand pressure remains [49][50]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Prices are expected to be strong in the short term due to the peak season, but bearish in the long term due to high supply [51]. Others Offset Printing Paper - If the price increase is implemented, long positions can be established at low prices with risk control [52]. Pulp - It is recommended to observe inventory and spot transactions. Long positions can be established at low prices for far - month contracts if the spot price is stable [52]. Logs - Prices are expected to be under pressure. Inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in a weak balance [53]. Urea - It is recommended to trade with a weakly sideways strategy. There is a game between bulls and bears, and coal prices affect the sentiment [53]. Synthetic Rubber - It is not recommended to chase short positions after a sharp decline. A short - call strategy can be continued [54][55].