贵金属日评：美国银行间流动性偏紧或使贵金属价格承压-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The tight liquidity in the US inter - bank market may put pressure on precious metal prices in the short term, but geopolitical risks, fiscal deficit expansion expectations, and central bank gold purchases will support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - Shanghai Gold: The closing price was 920.20 yuan/gram, with a change of - 0.82 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 13,234.00, and the position was 258,772.00, a decrease of 3,210.00 [1] - Shanghai Silver: The closing price was 32.00 yuan/ten grams, with a change of 446.00 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 525,416.00, and the position was 634,538.00 [1] - COMEX Gold Futures: The closing price was 4013.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.30 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 223,800.00, and the position was 328,472.00 [1] - COMEX Silver Futures: The closing price was 47.91 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 0.34 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 51,400.00, and the position was 105,276.00 [1] - London Gold Spot: The price was 4025.25 dollars/ounce, with a change of 13.75 compared to the previous day; SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1039.20 tons, and iShare Gold ETF holdings were 483.00 tons [1] - London Silver Spot: The price was 48.78 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.77 compared to the previous day; E - country iShare Silver ETF holdings were 15189.82 tons [1] Important Information - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October fell to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. The US employment market is cooling, and corporate lay - offs this year have reached a new high since 2020 [1] - The US Treasury has lowered its borrowing forecast for this quarter by 21 billion dollars to 569 billion dollars due to an unexpectedly large cash balance [1] Multi - and Short - Logic - In the short term, factors such as the decreased expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut, the one - year economic and trade agreement between China and the US, tight liquidity in the US inter - bank market, and the reduction of the US credit crisis, along with the decline in the total debt of major countries, may put pressure on precious metal prices [1] - In the medium to long term, geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and the US - Venezuela, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, and continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world will support precious metal prices [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term: Lightly short the main contract at high prices. For London gold, pay attention to the support levels around 3580 - 3860 and the resistance levels around 4180 - 4384; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support levels around 830 - 860 and the resistance levels around 950 - 1000; for London silver, pay attention to the support levels around 39 - 42 and the resistance levels around 50 - 55; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support levels around 9400 - 10000 and the resistance levels around 11600 - 12400 [1]