FICC日报：全球股市11月开门红，铝价强势突破-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has received frequent positive news, but the economic foundation still needs to be strengthened. The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposals were released, and the average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to be around 5%. The A-share market rebounded on November 3rd, and the thorium-based molten salt reactor concept stocks soared [2] - The Fed's pace of ending QT is still slow, and liquidity risks need to be monitored in November. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in December is 67.8%. The US government shutdown continues, and the selection of the Fed chair candidate will also affect future monetary policy [2] - For commodities, the overall strategy is to be neutral. Different commodity sectors have different outlooks: basic metals are strong, black sectors are affected by downstream demand, the energy supply is expected to be loose in the medium term, the "anti-involution" space in the chemical sector is worthy of attention, and the focus on agriculture products is on China's procurement plan and weather expectations. Precious metals may enter a consolidation phase [3] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposals set goals for national development, and the average GDP growth rate during this period is expected to be around 5%, which boosts market sentiment. The China-US economic and trade teams reached a three - point consensus, which includes resolving the TikTok issue, suspending some US investigations and export control rules, and canceling the "fentanyl tariff" [2] - The manufacturing PMI in October showed a decline. The China-US export and import rush needs to be digested. The RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.6, down from the previous value of 51.2 [2][5] - The China-EU export control dialogue was held, aiming to promote the stability and smoothness of the industrial and supply chains [2][5] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP and will end balance sheet reduction on December 1st. However, short - term capital tensions persist. The probability of a December rate cut is 67.8%. The US government shutdown continues and may become the longest in history [2] Commodity Analysis - The basic metal market is strong, with aluminum prices likely to reach the highest closing price since May 2022, and copper prices approaching the historical high [3][5] - The black sector is dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the "anti - involution" situation should be noted [3] - The long - term supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations [3] - The energy supply is expected to be loose in the medium term. OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November and December, and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year [3] - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of methanol, caustic soda, urea and other products is worthy of attention [3] - For agricultural products, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather expectations [3] - Precious metals may enter a consolidation phase after short - term fluctuations. A new gold tax policy was announced, which will increase retailer costs [3] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] Risk - Geopolitical risks may cause an upward risk in the energy sector; global economic downturn, Fed tightening, and overseas liquidity shocks may lead to a downward risk for risk assets [4] To - Do List - The RatingDog manufacturing PMI in October was 50.6, down from the previous value [5] - The China - EU export control dialogue was held in Brussels to promote the stability of the industrial and supply chains [5] - The A - share market rebounded on November 3rd, with the GEM index rising 0.29%. The thorium - based molten salt reactor concept stocks soared [2][5] - Aluminum prices are likely to reach the highest closing price since May 2022, and copper prices are approaching the historical high [3][5] - OPEC+ will increase production in November and December and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year [3][5] - A new gold tax policy was announced, which will increase retailer costs [3]