化工日报：PTA跟随成本震荡运行-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - PTA follows cost fluctuations. The market focus is on the increased maritime inventory of Russian oil. If most is compliant oil, there will be significant downward pressure on oil prices in Q4; if most is sanctioned oil, the impact on price decline is limited. PX load in China has recovered to a relatively high level, and the rebound space of PXN is limited. PTA has low processing fees and high inventory pressure after November. The demand side has improved marginally, but the long - term inventory accumulation expectation has limited improvement. Polyester demand has improved, and the load in November is expected to remain stable. PF has good fundamentals, and the processing difference is expected to be strong. PR processing fees are expected to fluctuate with raw materials [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures show TA & PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [8][9][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [15][18] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present toluene US - Asia spreads, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profits [23][24] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX loads in China and Asia [26][29][31] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures show PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PX, PTA, and PF [34][37][38] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, and the inventory days and profits of filament factories, as well as the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, texturing machines, and dyeing machines [46][48][59] PF Detailed Data - Figures show polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, and relevant operating rates and profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [68][74][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show polyester bottle - chip load, factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profits, and various month - to - month spreads [89][91][98]