黑色建材日报：宏观情绪反复，钢材价格震荡-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Iron ore: Sideways with a downward bias [4] - Coking coal and coke: Sideways [6] - Thermal coal: No specific rating provided [7] 2. Core Views - Steel prices are oscillating due to fluctuating macro - sentiment. The fundamentals of building materials are improving, but inventory is high year - on - year, and demand expectations are cautious. Hot - rolled coil inventory is decreasing, but it's also high year - on - year [1]. - Iron ore prices are oscillating downward. The arrival volume at ports has significantly increased, the supply - demand pattern is loosening, and prices face downward pressure as steel mills cut production due to losses [3]. - Coking coal and coke are oscillating. Coking coal supply is tight, while demand has improved. Coke production has increased, but downstream steel mills purchase on a just - in - time basis due to compressed profits [5][6]. - Thermal coal prices are oscillating strongly in the short term due to the situation at production areas. In the long - term, the supply is ample, but attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking during the winter heating season [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main contract of rebar closed at 3079 yuan/ton, and that of hot - rolled coil at 3295 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading of steel was average, with the total national building materials trading volume at 9800 tons. The trading volume in the East China region increased significantly, while that in the North decreased [1]. - Supply - demand and logic: The fundamentals of building materials are improving, but inventory is high year - on - year, and with the approaching end of the peak season, demand expectations are cautious. The inventory of hot - rolled coil is continuously decreasing, and the pace of destocking is accelerating, but the inventory is still high year - on - year [1]. Strategy - Single - sided: Sideways with a downward bias [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - commodity: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices oscillated downward, and the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties declined weakly. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for刚需. The total trading volume of iron ore at major ports in the country was 1.293 million tons, a 62.44% increase from the previous day; the total trading volume of forward - looking spot was 965000 tons, a 35.15% increase from the previous day. The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, with a total shipment volume of 3.2138 billion tons, a 5.15% decrease from the previous period. The arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly, with a total arrival volume of 3.2184 billion tons, a 58.6% increase from the previous period [3]. - Supply - demand and logic: The arrival volume of iron ore at ports increased significantly this week. The overall valuation of iron ore is neutral, the supply - demand pattern is loosening, and prices face downward pressure. As steel mills cut production due to losses, the resilience of iron ore demand has weakened, and prices face correction pressure [3]. Strategy - Single - sided: Sideways with a downward bias [4] - Inter - period: None [4] - Inter - commodity: None [4] - Futures - spot: None [4] - Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The coking coal and coke futures market showed a pattern of mixed gains and losses and oscillating consolidation. The customs clearance volume of imported coal increased slightly, and traders were optimistic about the market and were reluctant to lower prices, with the overall trading atmosphere improving [5]. - Logic and views: For coking coal, safety inspections are being carried out in some domestic production areas, and the customs clearance of imported coal is continuously recovering, but the overall supply is still tight. On the demand side, a new round of price increases for coke is imminent, and the market's purchasing enthusiasm has improved compared with before. For coke, the profits of coking enterprises have improved, and production has increased. On the demand side, downstream steel mills' profits are compressed, and they mainly purchase on a just - in - time basis [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Sideways [6] - Coke: Sideways [6] - Inter - period: None [6] - Inter - commodity: None [6] - Futures - spot: None [6] - Options: None [6] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: At production areas, coal prices are strong. Supply in some areas has shrunk due to safety inspections. The inventory level in Inner Mongolia is not high, and miners are optimistic about the future. The transportation by platform traders has improved, and the number of coal - pulling trucks at some mines with large previous price drops has increased. At ports, although prices have increased, the increase is smaller than that at mines, and traders' expectations are divided. Affected by the decrease in shipments and the increase in production - area prices, traders' quotes have increased, and some are reluctant to sell, while others think the price increase will be limited. Downstream users mainly purchase under long - term contracts and are resistant to high - priced coal. Currently, port inventory is low, with a large year - on - year decrease, and the shipment to ports is slow, so prices are unlikely to decline in the short term. For imports, the price support for imported coal is strong, and rainfall in Indonesia still affects shipments. At the beginning of the month, the imported coal market was stable, and demand was mainly for刚需 [7]. - Demand and logic: Affected by production areas, prices will oscillate strongly in the short term. In the long - term, the supply is ample, but attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking during the winter heating season [7]. Strategy - None [7]