Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The raw material inventory days of smelters are declining, and with winter storage demand, the procurement demand for the mining end is strong. Both domestic and overseas mining TC have dropped significantly, squeezing smelting profits. The expected growth rate of the supply side is declining, and if TC continues to fall, the supply - side pressure is expected to decrease. Although the LME premium has declined due to policy disturbances, the spot export window remains open, and the overseas warehouse receipt inventories are continuously decreasing. The domestic social inventory has not accumulated as expected, and the micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish while the macro environment remains favorable [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $85.57/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,350 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day and a spot premium of - 30 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,340 yuan/ton, with a change of 50 yuan/ton and a spot premium of - 100 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,320 yuan/ton, with a change of 70 yuan/ton and a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On November 3, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,425 yuan/ton and closed at 22,565 yuan/ton, up 215 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 140,709 lots, and the open interest was 118,939 lots. The highest price during the day was 22,610 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,400 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of November 3, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 161,700 tons, with a change of 300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 33,825 tons, a decrease of 1,475 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - The raw material inventory days of smelters are falling, and due to winter storage demand, the demand for mining end procurement is strong. Both domestic and overseas mining TC have dropped significantly, severely squeezing smelting comprehensive profits. High - cost areas are facing losses. The expected growth rate of the supply side is declining, with the expected year - on - year growth rate in November falling below 20%, and the daily average output decreasing month - on - month. If TC continues to fall, the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. Although the LME premium has declined due to policy disturbances, the spot export window remains open, and overseas warehouse receipt inventories are continuously decreasing, with the warehouse receipt risk not alleviated. The domestic social inventory has not accumulated for a long time, and the accumulation amplitude is lower than expected. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro environment remains favorable [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]
新能源及有色金属日报：矿端TC快速回落-20251104
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-11-04 05:11