新能源及有色金属日报：氧化铝现货价格仍在缓慢走弱-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage strategy: Long spread for SHFE aluminum [9] Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly. Overseas, production cuts in Iceland and high power costs put pressure on overseas production. Consumption is expected to peak in November - December. With positive macro - factors, aluminum price declines are limited, and upward space may open if inventory reduction goes smoothly [6] - Alumina has a surplus supply - demand pattern. Although the spot price is low and market activity has increased due to winter storage demand, the price is hard to rise, and continuous restocking by electrolytic aluminum plants is unsustainable. There are few positive factors in the current fundamentals [7][8] Summary by Category Aluminum Spot and Futures - Spot prices: On November 3, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,440 yuan/ton, the Central Plains A00 aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, and Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,290 yuan/ton [1] - Futures prices: The opening price of the SHFE aluminum main contract on November 3, 2025, was 21,360 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 21,600 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] - Inventory: As of November 3, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 627,000 tons, the warrant inventory was 64,269 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 554,575 tons [2] Alumina Spot and Futures - Spot prices: On November 3, 2025, the alumina prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou were 2,845 yuan/ton, 2,790 yuan/ton, 2,865 yuan/ton, 3,010 yuan/ton, and 3,015 yuan/ton respectively. The FOB price of Australian alumina was 319 US dollars/ton [2] - Futures prices: The opening price of the alumina main contract on November 3, 2025, was 2,798 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 2,789 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan/ton (-0.75%) from the previous trading day [2] Aluminum Alloy - Prices: On November 3, 2025, the procurement prices of Baotai civil - use raw aluminum and mechanical raw aluminum were 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,200 yuan/ton respectively, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,700 tons [4] - Cost and profit: The theoretical total cost was 20,905 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 5 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis - Electrolytic aluminum: Overseas production cuts, high power costs, and positive macro - factors support the aluminum price. Consumption is expected to improve in the peak season, and the aluminum price may rise if inventory reduction is smooth [6] - Alumina: The spot price is low, and market activity has increased due to winter storage. However, the supply - demand surplus remains, and the price is hard to rise. Cost reduction from imported ore has not improved smelting losses [7][8]