新能源及有色金属日报：消费端有支撑，碳酸锂盘面高位震荡运行-20251104

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term supply - demand pattern is favorable with continuous inventory depletion and good performance on the consumption side, providing some support for the market. However, the upstream hedging willingness will increase at the price of 83,000 yuan/ton. An inventory inflection point is expected in December. If consumption weakens and the mining end resumes production, the inventory may shift from depletion to accumulation, causing the market to decline [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 opened at 81,260 yuan/ton and closed at 82,280 yuan/ton, with a - 0.10% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 586,668 lots, and the open interest was 525,184 lots (compared to 510,440 lots the previous day). The basis was - 960 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 27,290 lots, a decrease of 331 lots from the previous day [1]. - Battery - grade lithium carbonate was priced at 79,400 - 82,600 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate at 78,200 - 79,400 yuan/ton, both up 450 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 975 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream material factories' operating rates are rising, but market transactions are dull after the price increase. Upstream and downstream enterprises are negotiating long - term contracts for next year, mainly on coefficients. The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remains high, with both spodumene and salt - lake ends above 60%. November's domestic lithium carbonate production is expected to be similar to October's [2]. - In October, domestic lithium carbonate production increased 6% month - on - month and 55% year - on - year. Other products like lithium hydroxide, cobalt sulfate, etc. also showed various growth or decline trends [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach, focus on inventory and consumption inflection points, and opportunistically sell hedging at high prices [4]. - Cross - period: None [5]. - Cross - variety: None [5]. - Spot - futures: None [5]. - Options: None [5].