氯碱日报：液氯价格大幅下调-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. The supply is abundant due to the resumption of maintenance and new production capacity. The demand side has a general purchasing sentiment, and the export situation is weakening. Attention should be paid to relevant policies [3] - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply side has a mixed situation of new maintenance and increased production. The demand side has stable orders in Shandong alumina, but the overall sentiment is weak. The inventory has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of new alumina plant procurement and cost factors [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The main PVC contract closed at 4,680 yuan/ton (-21). The East China basis was -80 yuan/ton (-9), and the South China basis was 0 yuan/ton (+1) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide process was quoted at 4,600 yuan/ton (-30), and the South China calcium carbide process was quoted at 4,680 yuan/ton (-20) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 740 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was -52 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide process gross profit was -763 yuan/ton (-40), the PVC ethylene process gross profit was -545 yuan/ton (+16), and the PVC export profit was -3.7 US dollars/ton (+7.2) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - plant PVC inventory was 33.8 tons (+0.4), the social PVC inventory was 54.5 tons (-1.0), the PVC calcium carbide process operation rate was 76.47% (+4.82%), the PVC ethylene process operation rate was 78.50% (-0.06%), and the overall PVC operation rate was 77.09% (+3.35%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 77.4 tons (+13.9) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The SH main contract closed at 2,350 yuan/ton (+40), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 150 yuan/ton (-40) [1] - Spot price: The 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was quoted at 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [1] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,509 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 725.8 yuan/ton (-280.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 113.78 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,069.74 yuan/ton (-14.50) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 44.26 tons (+2.83), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.73 tons (+0.28), and the caustic soda operation rate was 84.30% (+3.50%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation rate: The alumina operation rate was 85.86% (-0.41%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China was 68.06% (+0.75%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate was 89.66% (+1.05%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - Supply side: Maintenance has resumed this week, supply has increased, and new production capacity is gradually being mass - produced. The supply situation is abundant [3] - Demand side: The downstream operation rate has increased, but the purchasing sentiment is general. The export is trading at a lower price, and the export orders have weakened compared with the previous period [3] - Inventory: The social inventory has decreased slightly, but the absolute value is still high. The PVC futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and there is pressure on the futures price [3] Caustic Soda - Supply side: There are new maintenance enterprises and increased production at the same time, and the operation rate has rebounded. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton production capacity release of Tangshan Sanyou [3] - Demand side: The orders of Shandong alumina are stable, but the sentiment is not strongly boosted due to environmental control in Hebei. The non - aluminum demand will turn weak in the off - season. The expected new alumina plants in Guangxi may support the price, and attention should be paid to the procurement situation [3] - Cost: The electricity price in Shandong will increase in November, and the price of liquid chlorine has dropped significantly, which has increased the comprehensive cost valuation of chlor - alkali, and the cost support still exists [3] Strategy PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate widely with the macro - environment, and choose the right time for positive arbitrage between futures and spot [4] - Cross - period: Wait and see [4] - Cross - variety: None [4] Caustic Soda - Single - side: Fluctuate within a range [5] - Cross - period: Wait and see [5] - Cross - variety: None [5]