液化石油气日报：外盘价格反弹，市场氛围尚可-20251104

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on waiting and observing [2] 2. Core View - The newly released November CP price is slightly higher than expected, boosting the sentiment of the domestic spot market. The rebound of the overseas propane - butane swap also supports the landed cost. Spot prices in the Northeast, North China, and East China regions increased, while prices in other regions remained stable. The supply - demand pattern of LPG remains loose, with limited upward drivers but also relatively limited short - term contradictions [1] 3. Market Analysis - Regional Prices on November 3: Shandong market: 4260 - 4370 yuan/ton; Northeast market: 3630 - 4010 yuan/ton; North China market: 4250 - 4400 yuan/ton; East China market: 4150 - 4290 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market: 4450 - 4730 yuan/ton; Northwest market: 4070 - 4150 yuan/ton; South China market: 4350 - 4430 yuan/ton [1] - December 2025 First - Half Import Prices: In East China, the landed price of propane is 565 dollars/ton (up 10 dollars/ton), and butane is 563 dollars/ton (up 23 dollars/ton). In South China, propane is 560 dollars/ton (up 10 dollars/ton), and butane is 558 dollars/ton (up 23 dollars/ton). The RMB - converted prices also increased [1] - Market Impact: The higher - than - expected November CP price and the rebound of the overseas swap support the market. Northeast, North China, and East China prices rose, and the active trading in Shandong and planned refinery maintenance may reduce the supply of post - ether C4 and boost prices. However, the LPG supply - demand is loose with limited upward drivers [1] 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term waiting and observing [2] - Other Strategies: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]