新能源及有色金属日报：枯水期临近，工业硅供需格局有所好转-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches and southwest production decreases, the supply - demand pattern may improve. The current industrial silicon futures are affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies promoting capacity exit, the futures price may rise. For polysilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals are average with large inventory pressure. Although production is decreasing, downstream demand may also weaken. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality, and relevant policies are expected to be introduced in the year [1][3][8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9100 yuan/ton and closed at 9140 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous settlement. The position of the 2511 main contract was 228,268 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 46,161, a decrease of 1092 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton. The price in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained stable. The weekly output of Yunnan sample silicon enterprises was 6265 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 54%, a significant decrease from the previous week. As the dry season in Yunnan approaches, some local silicon furnaces have stopped production, and the operating rate is in a continuous downward trend. In November, only integrated enterprises or those with long - term order delivery needs will be in production, and the number of remaining operating furnaces may be less than 20 [1]. Consumption Analysis - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 11000 - 11300 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. Affected by the large - scale price adjustment of the leading manufacturer, downstream inventory replenishment increased, and market confidence was boosted. However, the problem of oversupply was still prominent, and the market was expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [2]. Strategy - The spot price is stable, and production in the southwest is decreasing, so the supply - demand pattern may improve. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy news. If there are policies promoting capacity exit, the futures price may rise. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and long positions can be taken at low prices for dry - season contracts [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated. It opened at 56320 yuan/ton and closed at 56065 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 143,844 lots, and the trading volume was 215,288 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 49.50 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 26.10 (with a month - on - month change of 1.16%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.93GW (with a month - on - month change of 2.49%). The weekly output of polysilicon was 28,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.41%, and the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a month - on - month decrease of 3.32% [5]. - The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.36 yuan/piece. The polysilicon output in October was expected to be about 133,500 tons, an increase from September, exceeding market expectations. In November, production in the southwest will decrease significantly, and the output is expected to decline [7]. - The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 was 0.28 yuan/W, TopconM10 was 0.31 yuan/W, Topcon G12 was 0.31 yuan/W (a decrease of 0.01 yuan/W), Topcon210RN was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [7]. - The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [7]. Strategy - The supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon are average, with large inventory pressure. The production has started to decrease recently, and the output in November may decrease month - on - month. The downstream production plan may also weaken. The futures price is affected by anti - involution policies and weak market reality. Participants need to pay attention to risk management and follow up on policy implementation and spot price transmission. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton [8].