供应端收缩预期增强，多晶硅领涨新能源金属

Group 1: Report's Core View - The expectation of supply contraction is increasing, and polysilicon is leading the rise in new energy metals. In the short and medium term, the expectation of supply contraction is increasing, with polysilicon leading the rise. In the long term, the expectation of supply contraction in silicon is strong, especially for polysilicon, and the price center may rise. The lithium ore production capacity is still in the rising stage, and the high growth of lithium carbonate supply will limit the upside of lithium prices [2]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - View: With the arrival of the dry season, silicon prices are oscillating [3][6]. - Information Analysis: The spot price has small fluctuations, with the domestic inventory increasing by 0.6% month - on - month to 447,700 tons. The domestic monthly production in October was 452,000 tons, up 7.5% month - on - month and down 3.8% year - on - year. The export in September was 70,233 tons, down 8.4% month - on - month and up 7.7% year - on - year. The single - month photovoltaic new installation in September was 9.66GW, down 53.76% year - on - year [6]. - Main Logic: The supply in the southwest will decrease due to the dry season, while the northwest supply is stable with the possibility of further resumption. The demand from polysilicon in the southwest may decline slightly, the organic silicon market is weak and stable, and the demand from the aluminum alloy industry has limited growth. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts have been decreasing, providing some support to the market [6]. - Outlook: The silicon price is expected to oscillate [7]. Polysilicon - View: The supply side is expected to cut production, and polysilicon prices are running at a high level [3][7]. - Information Analysis: The成交 price of N - type re -投料 is in the range of 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average of 53,200 yuan/ton. The export in September decreased by 53% year - on - year, and the import decreased by 49.46% year - on - year. Some southwest bases are reducing raw material input, with an expected affected capacity of about 320,000 tons/year [7][8]. - Main Logic: The production in October is expected to remain high, and the supply will contract in November. The demand in the fourth quarter may weaken. The current supply - demand situation still has pressure, but it is expected to improve in the dry season, and there are still policy expectations [8][9]. - Outlook: The polysilicon price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. Lithium Carbonate - View: Supply speculation is fermenting repeatedly, and lithium prices are oscillating widely [3][10]. - Information Analysis: On November 3, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 1.86% to 82,280 yuan/ton, and the total position increased by 26,819 lots to 909,910 lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 450 yuan/ton [10]. - Main Logic: The current supply and demand are both strong. The supply has been increasing, and there are small - scale supply - side disturbances. The apparent demand is good, and the social inventory is decreasing. Upstream enterprises can participate in hedging, and downstream enterprises should purchase as needed [10]. - Outlook: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. Group 4: Market Index - Comprehensive Index: On November 3, 2025, the commodity index was 2250.33 (+0.10%), the commodity 20 index was 2546.82 (+0.02%), and the industrial product index was 2237.50 (+0.09%) [51]. - New Energy Commodity Index: On November 3, 2025, it was 424.76, with a daily increase of 0.78%, a 5 - day increase of 1.76%, a 1 - month increase of 6.18%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.00% [53].