国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251104

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Core Views - The overall view of the black series futures market on November 4, 2025, is that different varieties have different trends. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate at a high level; rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are affected by sector sentiment and supply - demand factors, showing wide - range fluctuations; coke is expected to fluctuate strongly; coking coal is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the resonance of macro and sector themes; and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] Summary by Variety Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The futures price closed at 782.5 yuan/ton, down 17.5 yuan/ton or 2.19%. The position decreased by 5,350 hands to 534,930 hands. Among spot prices, imported ore prices generally decreased slightly, while domestic ore prices in Handan and Laiwu increased by 25 yuan/ton. Some basis and spread values changed, such as the basis (12601 to super - special) increasing by 16.4 yuan/ton [4] - News: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [5] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Price and Position Data: The RB2601 contract of rebar closed at 3,079 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton or 0.96%, with an increase in position of 39,567 hands. The HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,295 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or 0.60%, with a decrease in position of 47,384 hands. Spot prices in most regions decreased slightly [8] - News: In mid - October 2025, the average daily output of key steel enterprises showed different trends. The weekly data on October 30 showed an increase in production and a decrease in inventory for both rebar and hot - rolled coil. Policies supported commercial real estate REITs, and the 15th Five - Year Plan proposed directions for the high - quality development of the steel industry. In September, China's steel exports increased in volume and decreased in price, while imports increased in volume and decreased slightly in price [9][10][11] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [11] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price and Spread Data: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed different changes. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased, and the price of silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 10 yuan/ton. Various spreads such as the basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread changed [12] - News: On November 3, the prices of ferrosilicon in different regions showed different degrees of decline. In October, the electricity price for ferrosilicon in Qinghai increased significantly. From January to October 2025, the total output of silicomanganese was about 9.0396 million tons, and the output of silicomanganese 6517 was expected to continue to increase in November and December [12][14] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [15] Coke and Coking Coal - Price and Position Data: The JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,284.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.1%. The J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,771.5 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan/ton or 0.3%. Spot prices of coking coal in some regions increased, and most coke prices remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed [17] - News: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [18] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [18] Logs - Price, Volume, and Position Data: The prices of different contracts of logs showed a downward trend, with different changes in trading volume and position. The spread between spot and futures also changed significantly [20] - News: On October 29, it was announced that President Xi Jinping would meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 [22] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [22]