尿素早评：情绪好转反转存疑-20251104

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current sentiment of urea has improved, but the reversal may not have arrived from the supply - demand perspective. The current urea valuation is at a relatively low level, reflecting the pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price in Shanxi has temporarily stabilized after hitting a nearly five - year low of 1450 yuan/ton, and upstream enterprises are experiencing losses. If prices continue to fall, upstream production willingness may decline further. In the short term, the upward driving force for urea is insufficient due to large supply and inventory pressure, and downstream buyers mainly replenish inventory cautiously at low prices. Future potential drivers include the expected renovation of old chemical plants on the supply side and new export quota issuance [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures Prices - UR01 closed at 1623 yuan/ton on November 3, down 2 yuan (-0.12%) from October 31; UR05 closed at 1709 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.35%); UR09 closed at 1742 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.35%) [1] Domestic Spot Prices - In Shandong, the price was 1560 yuan/ton on November 3, down 30 yuan (-1.89%); in Shanxi, it was 1450 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.68%); in Henan, it was 1560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-1.27%); in Hebei, it was 1590 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-1.24%); in Northeast China, it remained unchanged at 1610 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 1560 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (-1.27%) [1] Basis and Spreads - The basis of Shandong spot - UR01 was - 149 yuan/ton on November 3, down 36 yuan from October 31; the spread of 01 - 05 was - 86 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [1] Upstream Costs - The anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1030 yuan/ton and 930 yuan/ton respectively [1] Downstream Prices - The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged at 2900 yuan/ton and 2500 yuan/ton respectively; the melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged at 5084 yuan/ton and 5150 yuan/ton respectively [1] Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1618 yuan/ton, the highest was 1629 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1606 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1623 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1617 yuan/ton, and the position was 269753 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Sell out - of - the - money put options and hold [1]