银河期货每日早盘观察-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. The bond market is not pessimistic in the medium - and short - term, but the repair rhythm may slow down. Different commodities have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and other aspects [19][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Stock Index Futures: The Shanghai Composite Index has support at the 3950 gap. The stock index will maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to go long at low levels near 3950 and reduce positions at high levels above 4000. Consider the IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage and bull spread options at low levels [19][20]. - Treasury Futures: The repair rhythm of treasury futures slows down, and there is a slight adjustment. It is recommended to go long on the TL contract at low levels on a short - term basis, short the 30Y - 7Y term spread and the current - next quarterly spread, and pay attention to the potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [22][23]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The supply remains high, and there is still inventory pressure. It is recommended to take a bearish view on the far - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the short strangle strategy for options [27]. - Sugar: The new - season sugar is priced at 5700 yuan/ton, and the international sugar price rebounds. It is recommended to build long positions in the short - term for Zheng sugar, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [35]. - Oils and Fats: The sector is in the bottom - grinding stage. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels after the bearish factors are exhausted, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [38]. - Corn/Corn Starch: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. It is recommended to go long on the 12 - contract corn on dips, close the long positions of the 01 - contract corn and wait for dips for the 05 and 07 - contract corn, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [40]. - Hogs: The supply pressure continues to be reflected, and the price continues to fall. It is recommended to build a small number of short positions, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and use the short strangle strategy for options [42][43]. - Peanuts: The spot price rebounds, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom in the short - term. It is recommended to try long positions lightly on the 01 and 05 - contract peanuts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [46]. - Eggs: The number of culled chickens increases, and the egg price stabilizes. It is recommended to close the previous short positions and stay on the sidelines, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [51]. - Apples: The quality of the new - season apples is poor, but the merchants' procurement is active. It is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [55]. - Cotton - Cotton Yarn: The acquisition enters the peak period, and the cotton price fluctuates slightly stronger. It is recommended to expect the cotton price to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short - term, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [60]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: The molten iron output shrinks, and the steel price fluctuates within a range. It is recommended to maintain the range - bound trading, go long on the coil - rebar spread at low levels, and stay on the sidelines for options [63][64]. - Coking Coal and Coke: They fluctuate at high levels. It is recommended to wait for the correction and then go long, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [66]. - Iron Ore: Take a bearish view. It is recommended to go short, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [68]. - Ferroalloys: The inventory continues to rise. It is recommended to go short on rallies, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage, and sell the out - of - the - money straddle option combination [71][72]. Non - ferrous Metals - Precious Metals: Multiple factors are intertwined, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to trade in a band - trading manner, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [75]. - Copper: The manufacturing PMI in Europe and the US is lower than expected, and the copper price pulls back in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 85000 - 86000 yuan/ton and the resistance level of 90000 yuan/ton, continue to hold the inter - market cash - and - carry arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [79][81]. - Alumina: The supply - side production cut has not been implemented, and the price is weak. It is recommended to expect a weak and volatile trend, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [85]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The macro and fundamental factors resonate, and the aluminum price is strong. It is recommended to expect the aluminum price to rise in an oscillatory manner, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [87]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The seasonal peak season arrives, and the alloy price rises with the aluminum price. It is recommended to expect the alloy price to rise with the aluminum price, consider the long AD short AL arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for options [90]. - Zinc: Hold the profitable long positions. It is recommended to hold the long positions, consider the buy SHFE sell LME operation, and stay on the sidelines for options [95]. - Lead: Pay attention to the resumption of production of secondary lead. It is recommended to focus on the resumption process, stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options [97].