国证国际港股晨报-20251104

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed positive movement with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.97%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.98%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.24% [2] - The total market turnover reached HKD 228.68 billion, with short selling accounting for 19.81% of the total turnover [2] - Southbound trading saw a net inflow of HKD 5.472 billion, with Xiaomi Group, CNOOC, and China Mobile being the most bought stocks, while SMIC, Alibaba, and Hua Hong Semiconductor were the most sold [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - The oil and gas sector experienced gains, with CNOOC up by 3.49%, PetroChina by 3.37%, and Sinopec by 1.94% following an OPEC+ agreement to maintain production increases [3] - The coal sector also performed well, with China Qinfa up by 7.53%, PowerChina by 5.48%, and China Shenhua by 2.42%, driven by increased demand due to early heating season in northern regions [4] Group 3: U.S. Manufacturing Insights - The U.S. manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in October, indicating a contraction for the eighth consecutive month, with production activity declining sharply [4] - Despite the overall weakness, sub-indices showed some optimism, with the new orders index rising to 49.4 and a slower decline in backlogged and export orders [5] Group 4: Company Analysis - Meta Platforms - Meta Platforms reported a 26% year-over-year increase in total revenue for Q3, reaching USD 51.2 billion, exceeding market expectations [7] - The company’s advertising revenue also grew by 26%, with a 14% increase in ad impressions and a 10% rise in average ad prices [8] - Meta's capital expenditure guidance for 2025 was raised to USD 70-72 billion, reflecting a significant increase from previous estimates [9] Group 5: Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were adjusted upwards by 2% and 5% respectively, while net profit estimates were lowered by 23% and 14% due to tax adjustments and expense expansions [10] - The valuation benchmark was adjusted to 26x 2026E P/E, with a target price set at USD 819, maintaining a buy rating [10]