全球宏观治理逻辑变化系列之二：海外财政可持续性前景堪忧

Group 1: Current Fiscal Sustainability Concerns - Global fiscal deficit rates have surged from an average of 3.6% pre-pandemic to 6.4% during 2020-2024, with developed countries' public debt nearing WWII peak levels of 116% of GDP[1] - By 2024, public debt in developed nations is projected to reach 110% of GDP, significantly higher than the 92% recorded in 2015[10] - Factors driving this increase include rigid government spending on defense and interest payments, with U.S. interest payments expected to exceed 25% of fiscal revenue by 2028[2] Group 2: Short-term Fiscal Pressures - Three key factors are likely to keep overseas fiscal deficit rates elevated: increased defense spending, rising interest payments due to high rates, and populist pressures for social welfare spending[2] - NATO countries are set to raise defense spending from 2.7% of GDP in 2024 to over 3.5% by 2035, necessitating annual increases of 0.13 percentage points[29] - The rise of right-wing populism is expected to exacerbate fiscal pressures, as governments may prioritize short-term welfare spending over long-term fiscal sustainability[46] Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Challenges - Population aging is projected to push global citizens aged 60 and above to over 20% by 2050, increasing social security and public service expenditures[48] - The rapid integration of AI technology may lead to structural unemployment, necessitating increased government spending on income support and retraining programs[48] Group 4: Potential Impacts of High Public Debt - Continued fiscal expansion amidst positive output gaps could lead to inflation and asset price inflation, with potential destabilization of currency values if governments pressure central banks for financial repression[4] - Historical precedents suggest that public debt crises are often resolved through competitive devaluation, high inflation, or fiscal tightening, but current political climates may hinder such measures[63]