贵金属数据日报-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation and are likely to further stabilize. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation opportunities of buying on dips after stabilization [5] - In the long - term, the Fed is still in an interest - rate cut cycle. Global geopolitical uncertainties persist, and the unsustainable US debt and intensifying great - power competition will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. With central banks' gold purchases continuing, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up. Long - term investors are advised to allocate on dips [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data - 15 - point price tracking of internal and external gold and silver on November 3, 2025: London gold spot was at $4017.06 per ounce, London silver spot at $48.86 per ounce, COMEX gold at $4028.00 per ounce, COMEX silver at $48.58 per ounce, AU2512 at 922.58 yuan per gram, AG2512 at 11455 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) at 919.58 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) at 11424 yuan per kilogram. Compared with October 31, 2025, the price changes were 0.2%, - 0.5%, 0.1%, - 0.1%, 0.1%, 0.1%, 0.1%, and 0.3% respectively [4] - 15 - point price tracking of spreads and ratios on November 3, 2025: Gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 3 yuan per gram, silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 31 yuan per kilogram, gold internal - external (TD - London) spread was 4.32 yuan per gram, silver internal - external (TD - London) spread was - 1022 yuan per kilogram, SHFE gold - silver ratio was 80.54, COMEX gold - silver ratio was 82.91, AU2602 - 2512 was 2.82 yuan per gram, and AG2602 - 2512 was 24 yuan per kilogram. Compared with October 31, 2025, the changes were - 5.4%, - 38.0%, - 10.8%, - 7.8%, - 0.1%, 0.2%, - 7.8%, and - 4.0% respectively [4] 3.2 Position Data - As of October 31, 2025: Gold ETF - SPDR was 1039.2 tons, silver ETF - SLV was 15189.81735 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 332808 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 66059 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 266749 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 72318 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 20042 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 52276 contracts. Compared with October 30, 2025, the changes were - 0.11%, 0.00%, 1.85%, 9.43%, 0.13%, 0.97%, - 0.21%, and 1.43% respectively [4] 3.3 Inventory Data - As of November 3, 2025: SHFE gold inventory was 87816.00 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 658851.00 kilograms. As of October 31, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 38168047 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 482438705 troy ounces. Compared with the previous period, the changes were 0.00%, - 1.01%, - 0.20%, and - 0.14% respectively [4] 3.4 Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market Data - As of November 3, 2025: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.09. As of October 31, 2025, the US dollar index was 99.73, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.60%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.11%, VIX was 17.44, the S&P 500 was 6840.20, and NYMEX crude oil was $60.88 per barrel. Compared with the previous period, the changes were - 0.02%, 0.19%, - 0.28%, 0.00%, 3.13%, 0.26%, and 0.98% respectively [4] 3.5 Market Analysis - Market review: On November 3, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.47% to 922.58 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.39% to 11455 yuan per kilogram [4] - Analysis and short - term outlook: The new gold tax policy mainly aims to standardize the gold market, strengthen tax supervision, and has limited impact on prices. With factors such as decreased market risk appetite and the ongoing US government shutdown, precious metal prices are in a range - bound oscillation. However, the divergence within the Fed on a December rate cut and the strong US dollar index will suppress the short - term upside of precious metal prices. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation and may further stabilize [5] - Medium - and long - term outlook: In the long run, the Fed is in an interest - rate cut cycle, and factors such as global geopolitical uncertainties, US debt issues, and central bank gold purchases will push up the long - term center of gold prices [5]