聚酯数据日报-20251104

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA supply has slightly shrunk, polyester production is stable, and polyester load remains above 90%. Although there are rumors of anti - involution in the polyester industry, PTA processing fees have been compressed to less than 200 due to lack of information. Industry profits are still affected by over - capacity. In the context of the easing of the Sino - US trade war, export demand may improve, and the current peak season is expected to last until November [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the inventory at East China ports is still low, port arrivals are limited, and overseas imports are expected to decline. New capacity puts pressure on prices, and low inventory is mainly reflected in the basis. The increase in coal prices does not provide strong cost support, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. Sino - US trade negotiations may increase export demand for textile and clothing [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Crude Oil: INE crude oil price rose from 458.7 yuan/barrel on October 31, 2025, to 467.9 yuan/barrel on November 3, 2025, an increase of 9.2 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA: PTA futures price rose slightly, with the main contract rising from 4586 yuan/ton to 4596 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The spot price rose from 4510 yuan/ton to 4535 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee increased from 122.1 yuan/ton to 148.2 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee increased from 198.1 yuan/ton to 214.2 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG: The main contract price of MEG decreased from 4018 yuan/ton to 3970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton. The domestic market price decreased from 4106 yuan/ton to 4068 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton [2]. - PX: CFR China PX price decreased from 820 to 819, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased from 249 to 239 [2]. - Polyester Filament: POY150D/48F price increased by 100 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F price increased by 20 yuan/ton, and DTY150D/48F price increased by 30 yuan/ton. The cash flow of POY, FDY, and DTY all improved [2]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: The price of 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber decreased by 15 yuan/ton, and the cash flow decreased by 23 yuan/ton [2]. - Polyester Chip: The price of semi - bright chips increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the cash flow decreased by 3 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Industry Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 86.21%, PTA start - up rate remained at 79.66%, MEG start - up rate remained at 64.41%, and polyester load increased from 89.34% to 89.56%, an increase of 0.22% [2]. 3.3 Transaction Suggestions - For PTA, although the Sino - US trade negotiations have made progress, the market's optimistic sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to whether the reduction of Sino - US tariffs can further stimulate domestic exports [2]. - For ethylene glycol, the low inventory situation and the impact of new capacity on prices should be concerned [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance - A 2.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].