农林牧渔：25Q3猪企利润缩窄，周期底部加速分化

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural sector, specifically highlighting the potential for long-term price increases in the pig farming industry due to capacity adjustments and cost optimization by leading companies [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the pig farming industry is experiencing a narrowing of profits as it approaches the bottom of the cycle, with significant differentiation among companies based on cost management [2][3]. - The poultry sector is facing pressure, with varying performance across sub-industries, particularly in white and yellow feathered chickens, while egg production is also struggling [3][27]. - The beef and dairy sectors are expected to see tightening supply in the medium to long term, with potential price increases anticipated in the coming years [75][76]. - Recent developments in U.S.-China trade negotiations have positively impacted soybean meal prices, suggesting a return to cost-driven pricing dynamics [80]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - In Q3 2025, 19 listed pig companies reported a total revenue of 1319.63 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.20% quarter-on-quarter and 5.31% year-on-year, with a net profit of 56.84 billion yuan, down 35.86% quarter-on-quarter and 71.26% year-on-year [14][19]. - The average debt ratio for the pig farming sector in Q3 2025 was 56.45%, reflecting a slight increase, indicating financial pressure amid a down cycle [22]. - The average price of live pigs on October 31 was 12.54 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.73 yuan/kg, but the industry is still facing losses [39]. Poultry Sector - The poultry sector's performance in Q3 2025 was mixed, with white feathered chicken companies reporting a net profit of 2.08 billion yuan, down 66.33% quarter-on-quarter, while yellow feathered chicken companies turned a profit of 1.55 billion yuan [28][29]. - The average price of white feathered chicken was 7.09 yuan/kg as of October 31, with a week-on-week increase of 0.21 yuan/kg, indicating a tightening supply [59]. Beef and Dairy - The price of calves was 32.1 yuan/kg as of October 31, with a year-to-date increase of 33.14%, while the price of fattened bulls remained stable at 25.67 yuan/kg [75]. - The dairy sector is experiencing low prices, with the average price of raw milk at 3.04 yuan/kg, down 31% from the peak, leading to ongoing capacity reductions [76]. Agricultural Products - The soybean meal price increased to 3046 yuan/ton in the spot market, up 62 yuan/ton week-on-week, driven by recent U.S.-China trade negotiations [80]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming USDA reports and South American planting weather for further price movements [80].