黑色金属数据日报-20251104

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel prices declined slightly. In the future, steel production is expected to gradually decrease, which may initially suppress furnace materials and later lead to a joint upward movement of the sector [2]. - The sentiment of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined, and prices oscillated. They are likely to face pressure and fluctuate, and future supply - demand changes should be monitored [2]. - There is a strong expectation for the third round of price hikes for coking coal and coke to be implemented. However, considering the weakening steel demand, the possibility of the coking coal and coke market returning to a volatile state increases [2]. - The upward pressure on iron ore prices is obvious, and prices are falling. It is advisable to hold short positions [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On November 3rd, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3145 yuan/ton (down 27 yuan, - 0.85%), HC2605 at 3304 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan, - 0.63%), I2605 at 760.5 yuan/ton (up 14.5 yuan, + 1.87%), J2605 at 1908.5 yuan/ton (down 21.5 yuan, - 1.11%), JM2605 at 1347.5 yuan/ton (down 14 yuan, - 1.03%) [1]. - For near - month contracts (main contracts), RB2601 closed at 3079 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan, - 0.96%), HC2601 at 3295 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan, - 0.60%), I2601 at 782.5 yuan/ton (down 14.5 yuan, - 1.82%), J2601 at 1771.5 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan, - 1.17%), JM2601 at 1284.5 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan, - 0.85%) [1]. - On November 3rd, the cross - month spreads of RB2601 - 2605 were - 66 yuan/ton (down 13 yuan), HC2601 - 2605 were - 9 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan), I2601 - 2605 were 22 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan), J2601 - 2605 were - 137 yuan/ton (down 1.5 yuan), JM2601 - 2605 were - 63 yuan/ton (up 2.5 yuan) [1]. - For spreads/ratios/profits of main contracts on November 3rd, the hot - rolled coil and rebar spread was 216 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan), the rebar - iron ore ratio was 3.93 (up 0.05), the coking coal - coke ratio was 1.38 (unchanged), the rebar surface profit was - 155.63 yuan/ton (up 4.63 yuan), and the coking surface profit was 63.12 yuan/ton (down 3.51 yuan) [1]. Spot Market - On November 3rd, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar were 3210 yuan/ton (unchanged), Tianjin rebar 3170 yuan/ton (unchanged), Guangzhou rebar 3320 yuan/ton (unchanged), Tangshan billets 2950 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and the Platts Index was 105.85 (down 1.55) [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coils were 3300 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Hangzhou hot - rolled coils 3340 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), Guangzhou hot - rolled coils 3290 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), the billet - product spread was 260 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), and the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 800 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - The spot prices of Super Special fines were 723 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), a certain type of ore was 775 yuan/ton (unchanged), coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1420 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port (ex - warehouse) was 1530 yuan/ton (unchanged), and PB fines at Qingdao Port were 800 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1]. - On November 3rd, the basis of HC main contract was 5 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), RB main contract was 131 yuan/ton (up 27 yuan), I main contract was 27 yuan/ton (unchanged), J main contract was - 91.34 yuan/ton (up 5.5 yuan), JM main contract was 165.5 yuan/ton (up 31.5 yuan) [1]. Investment Strategies - For steel, adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading; for futures - cash reverse arbitrage, take rolling profit - taking and wait for the opportunity for futures - cash positive arbitrage [2]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, adopt a wait - and - see approach for the time being [2]. - For coking coal and coke, focus on the performance of the 05 contract near the previous high support, and consider going long in the medium - to - long - term. Industrial customers can consider appropriate selling hedging on the 01 contract [2]. - For iron ore, hold short positions [2].