有色金属周报：铅：震荡回落-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic smelter production increase and decrease coexist, and the supply shortage has improved. After the consumer end resumes production, it is expected to maintain just - in - time procurement. The terminal peak season is not prosperous. It is expected that the lead price may fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the support level of 17,000 - 17,100 yuan/ton. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of raw material arrivals on smelter operations [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The opening of primary lead smelters increased and decreased, with small fluctuations in production. The opening of secondary lead smelters continued to rise due to improved profits and raw material supply. The opening of battery enterprises declined due to limited cost transfer. The import profit window was gradually closing, and downstream procurement was poor, leading to an increase in inventory [4][21][34][53][61][69]. - SMM 1 lead ingot average price decreased by 0.43% to 17,225 yuan/ton, Shanghai lead main contract closing price decreased by 1.17% to 17,390 yuan/ton, and LME lead closing price (electronic disk) increased by 0.42% to 2,025 US dollars/ton [10]. 3.2 Mineral Supply and TC - The tight mineral supply pattern has not been alleviated, and TC is stable with a weakening trend. Domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at 350 yuan/metal ton, and imported lead concentrate processing fee remained flat at - 125 US dollars/dry ton. Smelter profits declined, and as of October 24, smelter profits (excluding by - product revenues such as zinc and copper) were 106 yuan/ton [22][27]. 3.3 Primary Lead - The primary lead operating rate decreased to 67.17% on a month - on - month basis. The total weekly production of major deliverable primary lead smelting enterprises was expected to be 50,050 tons, with some enterprises having maintenance plans and others resuming normal production [28][33]. 3.4 Secondary Lead - The price of waste batteries was firm. As of October 31, the average price of waste batteries was 10,025 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton. The profit of secondary lead smelters declined slightly. As of November 3, the comprehensive profit of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was 160 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale enterprises was - 56 yuan/ton [37][46]. - The raw material inventory of secondary lead decreased, and the finished product inventory increased. As of October 30, the raw material inventory was 134,450 tons, and the finished product inventory was 3,940 tons. It is expected that the finished product inventory will further accumulate [47][49]. - The secondary lead operating rate increased by 1.2 percentage points to 43.4%. As of last Friday, the weekly production of secondary lead was 51,300 tons, with a slight decline. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to rise [50][52]. 3.5 Lead Batteries - The lead battery operating rate decreased by 6.46 percentage points to 68.9%. Due to limited terminal demand and high lead prices, some enterprises reduced production to avoid over - inventory. It is expected that the operating rate will recover this week [58][60]. 3.6 Import and Export - As of October 24, the refined lead export loss was about 3,200 yuan/ton. As of October 31, the import profit was 24.99 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was gradually closing [63][68]. 3.7 Inventory - As of October 30, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 29,800 tons, a decrease; the inventory of major deliverable primary lead brands in factories was 8,600 tons, a month - on - month increase. High lead prices suppressed downstream procurement, leading to inventory accumulation [72][78]. - As of October 31, SHFE refined lead inventory was 36,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease; as of October 30, LME inventory was 220,300 tons, a decrease [79][81]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, consumption, and inventory data of primary and secondary lead from January 2024 to August 2025 [82].