GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-11-04 06:26Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the AI industry, particularly highlighting the growth potential of DeepSeek AI and its competitive positioning against international models [10][25]. Core Insights - DeepSeek AI has achieved a daily active user count of 15 million within just 18 days of launch, significantly outperforming ChatGPT by 13 times. By May 2025, global web traffic reached 432 million, ranking just behind ChatGPT, New Bing, and Gemini [10]. - The DeepSeek R1-0528 model shows strong performance in various benchmark tests, closely matching top international models like OpenAI-o3 and Gemini-2.5-Pro-0506 [10]. - The average token usage for the Doubao model exceeded 16.4 trillion tokens per day by May 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 137 times [10][14]. Summary by Sections Section 1: DeepSeek AI - DeepSeek AI is positioned as a cost-effective and efficient solution in the Chinese AI market, addressing gaps in the domestic AI industry chain [25]. - The rapid growth in user engagement and token consumption indicates a strong market acceptance and potential for further expansion [10][14]. Section 2: AI Tokens - The report highlights a significant increase in token usage across major players, with Doubao reaching 16.4 trillion tokens per day, Microsoft Cloud at 1 trillion tokens in Q1 2025, and Google at 4.8 trillion tokens monthly by April 2025 [14][10]. - The overall global token consumption is experiencing exponential growth, reflecting the increasing demand for AI applications [14]. Section 3: Capital Expenditure (CapEx) - The projected CapEx for AI in 2026 is estimated at 476.25 billion USD, with a growth rate of 131% from the previous year. Major companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are expected to lead in AI CapEx investments [18]. - Domestic AI CapEx is also on the rise, with significant contributions from companies like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent, indicating a robust investment landscape in the AI sector [58][64]. Section 4: AI Chip Demand - The report forecasts that by 2026, the shipment of AI computing chips will approach 20 million units, driven by increasing demand for advanced AI capabilities [19]. - The domestic AI chip market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected market size of approximately 687.84 billion USD by 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [64].