Group 1: Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given report Group 2: Core Views - The report covers various sectors including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, providing analyses and trading suggestions for each sector. For example, it expects that treasury bond futures may not have a trending market and advises caution; stock index futures are expected to have limited downside risk and suggests seizing opportunities to go long; precious metals are currently over - priced, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and then wait and see [6][9][11]. Group 3: Sector - Specific Summaries Bonds - Treasury Bonds: The previous trading day saw mixed results for treasury bond futures. The central bank conducted 783 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 259 billion yuan. China's October S&P manufacturing PMI showed a slowdown in the expansion trend. Given the current economic situation, treasury bond futures are expected to have no trending market, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stocks - Stock Index: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. With the release of new immigration and entry - exit policies, and considering the current economic situation (stable but with weak recovery momentum), combined with low domestic asset valuations and sufficient economic resilience, along with the inflow of incremental funds and the easing of Sino - US economic and trade uncertainties, it is expected that there is limited downside risk, and opportunities to go long can be seized [8][9]. Precious Metals - Gold and Silver: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures showed small increases. Fed officials' remarks suggest potential interest rate cuts. The complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and the slowdown of the US labor market are all favorable for precious metals. However, due to the recent large increase in prices, it is recommended to take profits on long positions and then wait and see [11]. Commodities - Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil): The previous trading day, steel product futures slightly declined. In the medium term, the price of steel products is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still in a year - on - year decline, and the supply side has over - capacity issues. Considering the current high inventory, the price of rebar is expected to remain weak, and hot - rolled coils may follow a similar trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high prices during rebounds [13][14]. - Iron Ore: The previous trading day, iron ore futures significantly declined. The demand for iron ore has decreased, while the supply is expected to increase year - on - year in the fourth quarter, and the port inventory is rising. The market supply - demand pattern has weakened, and investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high prices [16]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, and the price of coke is facing an upward adjustment. From a technical perspective, the futures may continue to be strong in the short term, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [18][19]. - Ferroalloys: The previous trading day, ferroalloy futures showed small increases. The supply of ferroalloys is currently in a state of over - supply, but the cost is rising, and the downward space is limited. There may be short - term disturbances in supply reduction expectations, and investors can consider long - position opportunities at low prices [21][22]. - Crude Oil: The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. The increase in the number of US drilling rigs does not necessarily lead to an increase in production. US sanctions on Russian oil companies and OPEC's decision to suspend production increases are all favorable for oil prices. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [23][24]. - Fuel Oil: The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated upward. The recovery of Singapore's fuel oil supply is negative for prices, while the sanctions on Russia and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions are positive. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities [26][27]. - Polyolefins: The previous trading day, the PP and LLDPE markets showed some adjustments. In November, the impact of maintenance is expected to be high, and the inventory is low. November is the peak season for demand, so the market is expected to rebound. For now, it is recommended to wait and see [29]. - Synthetic Rubber: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The cost side is weak, and the price is expected to have limited downward space. It is recommended to pay attention to raw material prices and supply changes. The market is expected to oscillate [31][33]. - Natural Rubber: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined. The supply is affected by bad weather, and the demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to production area conditions and demand expectations, and there may be long - position opportunities [34][35]. - PVC: The previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The current supply - demand situation is still oversupplied, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to export and supply reduction after the festival [36][37]. - Urea: The previous trading day, urea futures declined. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to export policies and seasonal recovery signals of agricultural demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and the downward space is limited [38]. - PX: The previous trading day, PX futures increased. The supply - demand structure has improved, and the cost side is affected by crude oil fluctuations. The price is expected to oscillate, and investors can participate within a certain range while paying attention to crude oil changes and macro - policies [39]. - PTA: The previous trading day, PTA futures increased. The supply side has some adjustments, and the demand side is relatively stable. The processing fee is low, and the inventory is low. The price is expected to oscillate, and investors should be cautious and pay attention to oil prices [40]. - Ethylene Glycol: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the inventory may accumulate slightly. However, the demand is expected to improve, and the cost side sentiment is positive. The price is expected to oscillate, and investors can participate within a certain range while paying attention to port inventory and imports [41]. - Short - Fiber: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is improving, but the cost - driving force is limited. The price is expected to oscillate with the cost, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42]. - Bottle Chips: The previous trading day, bottle chip futures increased. The processing fee has decreased, the supply is increasing slightly, and the export growth is slowing down. The price is expected to oscillate with the cost, and investors should control risks [43]. - Lithium Carbonate: The previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is also strong, with the inventory gradually decreasing. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [44][45]. - Copper: The previous trading day, copper futures declined. The Sino - US trade negotiation is in a stalemate, and the Fed's interest rate cut has a complex impact on copper prices. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and high prices suppress demand. The price is expected to enter a sideways consolidation phase [46][47]. - Aluminum: The previous trading day, aluminum futures showed mixed results. The supply of alumina is in an oversupply situation, and the production of electrolytic aluminum may be affected by winter restrictions. High prices may suppress demand, but the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to remain at a high level [48][49][50]. - Zinc: The previous trading day, zinc futures increased. The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, and the production of refined zinc is limited. The demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to oscillate [51][52]. - Lead: The previous trading day, lead futures increased. The supply of primary lead is increasing, and the supply of recycled lead is recovering slowly. High prices suppress demand. The price is supported by low inventory and cost, but the upward space is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious when going long [53][54]. - Tin: The previous trading day, tin futures declined. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand has certain support. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [54]. - Nickel: The previous trading day, nickel futures declined. The macro - environment has improved, but the supply - demand situation is complex. The supply of high - grade nickel ore is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [55]. - Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal: The previous trading day, soybean meal futures increased, and soybean oil futures decreased. Sino - US trade relations are expected to improve, and the Brazilian soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. The supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately, while the demand for soybean oil is suppressed. It is recommended to consider taking profits on long - positions in soybean meal and wait and see for soybean oil [56][57]. - Palm Oil: The previous trading day, palm oil futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the market is expected to be weak. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds [60]. - Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil: The previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures increased. The supply of eggs is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - positions and consider adding short - positions during rebounds [61][62]. - Cotton: The previous trading day, cotton futures oscillated. Sino - US trade relations are favorable in the long - term, but short - term international cotton prices are under pressure. Domestic cotton has a strong production expectation, and the demand is neutral - weak. The price is expected to have limited upward space [63][64]. - Sugar: The previous trading day, sugar futures rebounded. Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, which restricts price rebounds. The domestic supply pressure in the fourth quarter is not large, and the price has certain support at the bottom [65][66][67]. - Apple: The previous trading day, apple futures declined. The quality of this year's apples is poor, and the opening price is higher than last year. The price is expected to be strong in the short term [69][70][71]. - Live Pigs: The previous trading day, live pig futures declined. The pig price is expected to be weak, and the supply is increasing. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities during rebounds [72][73]. - Eggs: The previous trading day, egg futures increased. The supply of eggs is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - positions and consider adding short - positions during rebounds [74][75]. - Corn and Starch: The previous trading day, corn and starch futures increased. The price of corn is affected by the rise in soybean prices. The inventory situation is complex, and the demand is growing slightly. The price of corn is expected to be under pressure, and starch may follow the trend of corn [76][77].
西南期货早间评论-20251104
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-11-04 06:46