聚焦成长消费与周期价值：轻工行业年度策略

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the companies mentioned in the report for valuation have a "Buy" rating, including papermaking companies such as Sun Paper, Nine Dragons Paper, and metal packaging companies like OriGene Technologies [65][68] 2. Core Views of the Report - Listed companies are actively deploying overseas production capacity, with established production in regions like Vietnam to cover US orders. Overseas production has advantages in tariff rates, raw materials, labor, and local industrial preferential policies [2] - The supply - side of the papermaking and metal packaging industries is expected to improve. Prices and profitability are at low levels, and anti - involution is becoming a consensus among large manufacturers. Price synergy is expected to improve, and the prices of the entire papermaking industry chain are expected to rise, increasing the profits of leading companies. The two - piece cans in the metal packaging industry are expected to adjust prices at the end of the year, with significant profit elasticity [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Overseas Production Capacity Deployment - Tariff Advantage: Southeast Asian exports to the US have a significant tariff advantage compared to Chinese exports. For example, furniture products under the 301 clause show this difference [31] - Raw Material Advantage: Some overseas regions have abundant raw material reserves, which is beneficial for enterprises to purchase locally and reduce costs. Southeast Asia has good resource endowments suitable for traditional manufacturing industries [34] - Labor Cost Advantage: The labor cost in Vietnam is lower than that in China. The total employer cost in Vietnam is about 352,350 RMB, while in China it is about 385,120 RMB [39] - Policy Advantage: Southeast Asian countries have formulated different preferential policies for different industries through taxation, land, and subsidies [41] Papermaking Industry - Industry Chain: The papermaking industry chain includes upstream raw materials (such as waste paper, wood pulp), mid - stream paper manufacturing, and downstream applications (such as packaging, printing) [47] - Price and Profit: In 2025, the prices of some paper products have changed. Boxboard paper and corrugated paper have increased in price, and the profitability of paper enterprises has first declined and then increased. Cultural paper prices are expected to stabilize and rise, and white cardboard price increase letters are waiting to be implemented [58][62] - Company Analysis - Sun Paper: In the short term, it is expected that the prices of broad - leaf pulp and cultural paper will increase in November, and the profit will be increased by more than 100 million after the commissioning of projects in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the company's competitive advantage is expected to expand [63] - Nine Dragons Paper: In FY25, the sales volume increased by 9.6% year - on - year. In the short term, the profit is expected to be repaired, and in the long term, the cost advantage is expected to be further expanded [63] Metal Packaging Industry - Company Analysis - OriGene Technologies: Domestically, the sales volume of two - piece cans in Q3 increased, and the overseas business slightly increased revenue and profit after the merger in September. In the short term, the two - piece cans are expected to adjust prices at the end of the year, and in the long term, the growth space is broad [66] - Industry Trend: The anti - involution initiative in the metal packaging industry is expected to improve price synergy, and the profit elasticity of two - piece can enterprises is large [67] Other Industries - Pan - entertainment Industry: From 2019 - 2024, the market size of China's pan - entertainment products and pan - entertainment toys has grown at a certain rate, and is expected to continue to grow from 2024 - 2029 [5][8] - AR Industry: Some AR companies have different financing stages, valuations, and market performances. For example, Rokid has a high valuation and good performance in the US and Japanese markets [17] - New Tobacco Industry: The harm - reduction of new tobacco is better than traditional tobacco. The new product Glo Hilo of Smoore International is expected to reshape the global HNB competition pattern [21][28]