日度策略参考-20251104

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the entire industry was provided in the report Core Viewpoint - In the short term, as positive factors such as the progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations and better - than - expected third - quarter report results are gradually released, market sentiment may shift from relative optimism to caution, and the stock index may enter an oscillation phase to accumulate momentum for the next upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1] Summary by Industry Category Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space [1] Metals Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate in the short term and gradually stabilize, and silver prices may also maintain an oscillation [1] Base Metals - Copper prices have corrected, but the downward space is expected to be limited; aluminum prices are oscillating; alumina has weak fundamentals and downward pressure on spot prices; zinc is expected to maintain high - level oscillation; nickel and stainless steel prices are affected by macro factors and supply - side conditions, with nickel having high - inventory pressure; tin has long - term low - buying opportunities; industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate prices are oscillating, with lithium carbonate facing potential upward pressure after the macro - sentiment is realized [1] Ferrous Metals - Steel products such as rebar, iron ore, manganese silicon, and white silicon are oscillating, with different influencing factors such as production restrictions, cost support, and supply - demand relationships; glass prices are oscillating, and the upward resistance is relatively large; the upward breakthrough of coking coal futures is uncertain, and coke can consider selling hedging [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil may have a phased rebound; soybean oil has limited rebound momentum; rapeseed oil is under pressure; cotton demand has great uncertainty, and the new - crop basis and futures prices may be under pressure; sugar prices have seasonal strength in the short term but limited rebound space in the medium term; soybean meal has limited rebound height; pulp is recommended for 11 - 1 reverse spreads; log is recommended for observation; live pig futures may turn weak following the spot [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt are oscillating, with different influencing factors such as OPEC+ production plans, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand relationships; natural rubber is bullish, while BR rubber is under pressure; PTA prices are rising, and short - fiber prices follow the cost; benzene - related products are affected by factors such as weak prices and reduced device operating rates; urea, methanol, PVC, and caustic soda are oscillating, with different influencing factors such as supply pressure and cost support; LPG's domestic spot fundamentals are stable [1] Others - The shipping industry in November has relatively loose transport capacity supply and is in an oscillating state [1]