Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [5][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The easing of Sino - US trade policies has released positive signals, significantly alleviating the suppression of trans - oceanic cargo volume by trade frictions, and the market sentiment has improved the expectations of the European line [6] - The Sino - US trade agreement this week is expected to prompt some US retailers to accelerate short - term imports, but it is unlikely to lead to a significant adjustment of the supply - chain strategy [6] - The EC market is oscillating strongly. In the short term, macro - level positives, capacity control, and multiple rounds of price - support expectations will still support the market. Before the peak - season expectations are falsified, the main contract is likely to maintain a strong oscillation, but the market has already factored in a certain premium [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Rate Index: The current values of SCFI, CCFI, SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1551, 1021, 2647, 1208, 3438, and 1344 respectively, with increases of 10.49%, 2.89%, 22.94%, 9.12%, 13.39%, and 7.87% compared to the previous values. The current value of SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1208, a decrease of 7.93%, and the current value of SCFI - Mediterranean is 1983, an increase of 13.57% [5] - Contracts: The current values of EC2506, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1400.8, 1483.5, 1139.3, 1851.7, 1592.2, and 1184.4 respectively, with increases of 1.54%, 0.84%, 0.64%, 2.64%, 2.48%, and 2.01% [5] - Positions: The current positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 1490, 1342, 1266, 29320, 18781, and 14507 respectively, with changes of - 31, - 10, - 14, - 2045, 326, and - 403 [5] - Monthly Spreads: The current values of the 12 - 02, 12 - 04, and 02 - 04 monthly spreads are 259.5, 667.3, and 407.8 respectively, with increases of 9.1, 24.4, and 15.3 [5] Market Analysis - EC Market: The market is oscillating strongly. In early November, the spot prices of shipping companies varied, and the price in late November was reported at 3000 [7] - Influencing Factors: The key influencing factors include the fulfillment of peak - season demand, the persistence of shipping company strategies, and geopolitical and long - term agreement variables [8] - Outlook and Strategy: In the short term, the market is expected to remain strongly oscillating. It is recommended to buy the main contract at low prices and focus on tracking the suspension of voyages and shipping company loading rates. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [8][9]
航运衍生品数据日报-20251104
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-11-04 07:37