China Post Securities·2025-11-04 07:50Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [13] Core Views - The company reported a slight improvement in Q3 earnings, with a focus on the potential for profit elasticity due to anti-competitive measures in the industry [5][7] - The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 61.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 21.3% to 6.31 billion yuan [5][6] - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in profitability driven by cost advantages and improved operational efficiency [7] Company Overview - The latest closing price is 23.19 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 122.9 billion yuan [4] - The company has a total share capital of 5.299 billion shares, with 4 billion shares in circulation [4] - The debt-to-asset ratio stands at 21.3%, and the price-to-earnings ratio is 15.88 [4] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue was 20.01 billion yuan, down 11.4% year-on-year, but net profit for the quarter rose by 3.4% to 1.94 billion yuan [5][6] - The gross margin for Q3 improved to 22.44%, an increase of 1.66 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to falling coal and raw material prices [6] - The company expects revenues of 90.8 billion yuan and 92.5 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with net profits projected at 8.81 billion yuan and 9.92 billion yuan [7][9] Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts a net profit growth of 14.5% in 2025 and 12.6% in 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 14.0X and 12.4X [7][9] - The EBITDA for 2025 is estimated at 25.17 billion yuan, reflecting a significant recovery in operational performance [9][12]