政策与大类资产配置月观察：“十五五”：以经济建设为中心

Domestic Policy News - The "15th Five-Year Plan" proposal was officially released, marking a new phase in China's economic and social development planning [12][15] - The proposal emphasizes "high-quality development" and sets specific goals for total factor productivity, consumer rates, and domestic demand [15][16] - The State Council held a meeting to discuss deepening reforms and expanding institutional openness, focusing on enhancing market access and optimizing regulatory systems [17] Economic Indicators - In October, the A-share market showed stability, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.85%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.56% [4] - The manufacturing PMI experienced a seasonal decline, indicating potential challenges in the manufacturing sector [4][9] Monetary and Fiscal Policy - The central bank maintained a tight balance in October, with a net withdrawal of 25.3 billion yuan in funds [4] - The People's Bank of China announced the resumption of government bond trading, which is expected to influence liquidity in the market [4][5] Commodity Market Analysis - In October, non-ferrous metals rebounded, while oil prices saw a slight increase [4] - The Ministry of Commerce released policies to promote green trade, indicating a shift towards sustainable practices in the commodity sector [4][21] Foreign Exchange Market - Following the summit between the Chinese and U.S. presidents, the U.S. dollar index slightly rebounded, while the Chinese yuan appreciated to 7.12 [5][9] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange introduced measures to facilitate cross-border trade, reflecting a proactive approach to managing foreign exchange [5][20] Asset Allocation Outlook - The report anticipates a challenging environment for equity markets, emphasizing the importance of maintaining policy continuity and flexibility [5] - There is a focus on gold and convertible bonds as potential investment opportunities, highlighting a shift in asset allocation strategies [5][20]