中国商品期货跨境套利周报-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, gold and silver prices are expected to enter an adjustment phase. The price spread between COMEX and LME copper may narrow, and it is recommended to watch the opportunity of shorting COMEX copper and going long on LME copper [5][78]. - For zinc, the pressure of squeezing on LME zinc will ease, and it is suggested to roll and participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [5][38]. - The soybean market is still dominated by Sino - US trade relations. It is expected that the external market will be stronger than the domestic market, and it is recommended to go long on CBOT soybeans and short DCE soybeans [5]. - The Fed is expected to maintain its rate - cut policy in the first half of 2026. The short - term upward space of the US dollar index is limited and does not constitute a trend reversal [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals - Gold: Last week, the internal - external price spread of gold fluctuated, and the valuation was at a neutral level. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [12]. - Silver: Last week, the internal - external price spread of silver fluctuated, and the overseas spread recovered to a neutral position. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage strategies [18]. 3.2 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Last week, domestic copper inventories continued to accumulate, and the import window remained in a loss state. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [22]. - Aluminum: The traditional peak season has passed. Domestic aluminum ingots have started to accumulate slightly, and LME aluminum inventories have also increased. The short - term internal - external ratio remains range - bound. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [28]. - Zinc: Currently, the window for exporting Chinese zinc ingots to Southeast Asia and delivering to warehouses has opened, and domestic social inventories have started to decline. LME plans to introduce permanent rules to limit large near - month positions. It is recommended to roll and participate in shorting LME zinc and going long on SHFE zinc [38]. - Lead: The increase in domestic social inventories is limited, and smelter inventories are not high. LME lead inventories have decreased, and the ratio of cancelled warrants is relatively high. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [39]. - Nickel: The import window is closed, and the extreme price difference situation has improved significantly. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [46]. - Tin: Last week, the internal - external ratio of tin decreased, the spot import window remained closed, and the import loss was 15,516 yuan/ton. The driving force for the price spread is not obvious. This week, it is recommended to wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [50]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: Last week, the internal - external price spread of iron ore remained in a narrow range with no obvious drivers. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [56]. 3.4 Energy - Crude Oil: Last week, the SC - Brent price spread fluctuated. Due to factors such as intensified freight fluctuations and uncertainty in Russian crude oil supply, it is recommended to wait and see this week [59]. 3.5 Agricultures - Soybean: Last week, the crushing profit was at the bottom and fluctuated. With the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the crushing profit is expected to gradually recover. It is recommended to go long on the external market and short the domestic market [65]. - Sugar: Last week, the import crushing profit increased. In the medium - to - long - term, the domestic market is likely to outperform ICE. This week, it is recommended to mainly wait and see [69]. - 20 -号胶: Last week, there was little change, and the price spread was in a non - arbitrage range. With the start of the tapping season globally, supply is expected to increase, but demand shows no improvement. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [72]. 3.6 Overseas Arbitrage - COMEX - LME Copper: Last week, the price spread between COMEX and LME copper widened mainly due to the strong performance of COMEX gold and silver. In the short term, the spread may narrow, and it is recommended to watch the opportunity of shorting COMEX copper and going long on LME copper [5][78]. - Brent - Dubai EFS: Last week, the Brent - Dubai EFS fluctuated lower. OPEC+ is cautious about increasing production, and the monthly spread fluctuates more. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [83]. - WTI - Brent: Last week, the WTI - Brent price spread fluctuated. The refinery operating rate in the US weakened in October, the pressure on refined oil inventories eased, and crude oil imports were low. The driving force for the price spread is limited. This week, it is recommended to wait and see [89]. - Natural Gas (TFU - HH): Last week, the price spread weakened. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. In the medium term, as the winter in Northwest Europe is expected to be colder than in the US and European inventory replenishment is less sufficient than in the US, the winter price spread is expected to rise [93].