有色金属周报：镍与不锈钢-20251104

Report Title - "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel" [1] Report Date - November 4, 2025 [3] Report Analysts - Wu Jinheng, Research Institute [3] Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold [4][92] - Stainless Steel: Hold Short Position [5][117] Core Views - Nickel market shows weak supply - demand fundamentals and large inventory pressure, with low valuation, expected to fluctuate at a low level [4][92] - Stainless steel market has weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening cost support, expected to fluctuate weakly [5][118] Summary by Section 1. Nickel 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel oscillated downward, with a weekly decline of 1.14%, trading volume increased to 592,700 lots (+150,500), and open interest decreased to 112,500 lots (-89,000) [9] - LME nickel had a weekly decline of 0.72%, and trading volume increased to 30,300 lots (+32,000) [9] - The basis premium was 1,050 yuan/ton [11] 1.2 Supply Side - Nickel Ore: Last week, prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, and shipping prices from the Philippines to China were unchanged; in September, Philippine nickel ore exports decreased, and China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% MoM decrease and 33.9% YoY increase; last week, nickel ore arrivals increased by 391,400 tons, and port inventories decreased by 180,000 wet tons [18][23][25] - Nickel Pig Iron: 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron price dropped by 5.5 yuan/nickel point, 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron price fell by 100 yuan/ton; in September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% MoM and 47.2% YoY increase, expected to decline in October; in November, domestic nickel pig iron production and capacity utilization decreased, while those in Indonesia increased; nickel pig iron inventory accumulated [30][33][41][43] - Electrolytic Nickel: In November, refined nickel production and capacity utilization decreased; electrolytic nickel export profit expanded; in September, electrolytic nickel imports increased and exports decreased [47][51][55] 1.3 Demand Side - Stainless Steel: In November, stainless steel production decreased, with 300 - series production remaining basically flat; in September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% MoM and 8.7% YoY, imports increased by 2.7% MoM and 0.4% YoY, and October's imports and exports are expected to be similar to September's [60][106][109] - New Energy: Nickel sulfate price remained flat while pure nickel price dropped, and the premium of nickel sulfate over pure nickel expanded; in November, ternary precursor production decreased by 0.1% MoM and increased by 20.4% YoY, ternary material production increased by 1.4% MoM and 39.8% YoY, and nickel sulfate production increased by 4.8% MoM and 23.4% YoY [69][74][76] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE and LME nickel inventories increased; Shanghai bonded area pure nickel inventory decreased by 800 tons, and six - region social total inventory decreased by 698 tons [83][88] 1.5 Electrowon Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP decreased; the cost of producing electrowon nickel from integrated MHP was significantly lower than that from integrated nickel matte [91] 1.6 Market Outlook - Strategy: Hold; Operating range: 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton; Due to loose fundamentals, large inventory pressure, and low valuation, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [4][92] 2. Stainless Steel 2.1 Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures oscillated downward, with a weekly decline of 1.03%, and the basis widened to 850 yuan/ton; trading volume decreased to 574,200 lots (-64,700), and open interest decreased to 82,000 lots (-62,200) [95] 2.2 Cost and Profit - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices dropped, weakening cost support; 200 - series profit increased, 300 - series loss widened, and 400 - series loss narrowed [98][102] 2.3 Fundamentals - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to 200 - series production cuts, and 300 - series production remained basically flat; in September, stainless steel exports decreased and imports increased, and October's imports and exports are expected to be similar to September's [106][109] 2.4 Inventory Side - Domestic stainless steel social inventory increased; 200 - series and 300 - series inventories increased, while 400 - series inventory decreased [115] 2.5 Market Outlook - Strategy: Hold short position; Operating range: 12,000 - 13,000 yuan/ton; Due to weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening cost support, stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5][117][118]