Changjiang Securities·2025-11-04 08:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - In Q3 2025, the company's operating revenue was 24.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.9%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 730 million yuan, down 16.8% year-on-year [3][5]. - The company's gross profit decreased by 7.7% to 1.18 billion yuan, primarily due to the cancellation of the U.S. small package tax exemption policy, which led to a reduction in air freight charter volume and a decline in air freight agency profits. Additionally, railway transportation prices fell, putting pressure on railway agency profitability [3][8]. - Despite the operational challenges, the completion of the 25% equity transfer of Zhaoshang Lukai is expected to enhance the net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025. The company maintains a stable cash flow and attractive dividend yield, estimated at approximately 4.6% for A shares and 5.9% for H shares [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported a 16.9% decline in operating revenue to 24.52 billion yuan and a 16.8% decrease in net profit to 730 million yuan [3][5]. - The gross profit margin fell by 7.7% to 1.18 billion yuan, influenced by reduced air freight charter volumes and declining railway transport prices [8]. Investment Insights - The net investment income decreased by 5.9% to 460 million yuan, with continued pressure on the volume of China Foreign Trade and DHL [8]. - The sale of 25% equity in Zhaoshang Lukai is projected to contribute approximately 1.65 billion yuan (pre-tax) to the profit statement in Q4 2025 [8]. Market Strategy - The company is upgrading its marketing system and activating overseas markets, indicating potential recovery in demand. It is focusing on key industries and optimizing management models to enhance logistics volume growth [8]. - With the gradual easing of U.S.-China relations, cross-border transportation demand is expected to recover, providing growth opportunities in freight forwarding [8].