Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-04 08:57Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The supply increase is obvious and the downstream demand is average, leading to a significant accumulation of liquid caustic soda factory inventory and high pressure last week. This week, there are both new maintenance and restart devices in North and Central China, and the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to increase month - on - month. The alumina downstream has a loose supply and low - profit situation, which may continue to suppress the industry's stocking demand; non - aluminum downstream has rigid procurement with little change. The liquid caustic soda inventory in factories is at a high level, increasing the pressure on enterprises to sell at low prices. Recently, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has turned negative, the chlor - alkali profit has narrowed, some enterprises have reduced production, and the market expectation has improved. In the short term, SH2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2400 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of caustic soda is 2336 yuan/ton, the position of the main contract of caustic soda is 128064 hands (a decrease of 7183 hands), the net position of the top 20 futures is - 9167 hands, the trading volume of the main contract of caustic soda is 254103 hands (a decrease of 218494 hands). The closing price of the January contract of caustic soda is 2336 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the May contract is 2503 yuan/ton (a decrease of 14 yuan/ton) [2] Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 800 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 950 yuan/ton. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 2500 yuan/ton, and the basis of caustic soda is 150 yuan/ton (a decrease of 40 yuan/ton) [2] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong is 210 yuan/ton, and in the Northwest is 220 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton). The price of steam coal is 649 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is - 375 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu is 75.5 yuan/ton (a decrease of 124.5 yuan/ton) [2] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13120 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina is 2790 yuan/ton. From October 24th to 30th, the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 3.5% month - on - month to 84.3%. From October 25th to 31st, the national alumina start - up rate decreased by 0.41% month - on - month to 85.86%; the viscose staple fiber start - up rate increased by 1.03% to 89.64%, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate increased by 1.01% to 68.32%. As of October 30th, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 6.84% month - on - month to 44.26 tons. From October 24th to 30th, the chlor - alkali profit rose to 626 yuan/ton [2]