Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-04 09:10Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metals market may continue to experience wide - range fluctuations. The tariff policy narrative is uncertain, and the ongoing US government shutdown and central bank gold - buying expectations provide bottom support for gold prices. However, the strengthening of the US dollar and long - term yields pose potential pressure on gold prices. The weakening of the interest - rate cut expectation and the strengthening of the US dollar may hinder the upward movement of gold prices. If the narrative of the end of the US government shutdown heats up, it may also suppress the upward expectation of gold prices. It is recommended to adopt an interval - band trading strategy. The recommended trading range for the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is 890 - 950 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract is 11000 - 11600 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 915.58 yuan/gram, down 7 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 11238 yuan/kilogram, down 217 yuan. The main - contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 144602 hands, down 6771 hands; those of Shanghai Silver are 257090 hands, down 4377 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 101888 hands, down 2567 hands; those of Shanghai Silver are 93370 hands, down 192 hands [3] 3.2现货市场 - The warehouse - receipt quantity of gold is 87816 kilograms, unchanged; that of silver is 665610 kilograms, up 6759 kilograms. The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 916 yuan/gram, down 1.5 yuan; the spot price of silver is 11343 yuan/kilogram, down 7 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 0.42 yuan/gram, up 5.5 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 105 yuan/kilogram, up 210 yuan [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 1041.78 tons, up 2.58 tons; silver ETF holdings are 15189.82 tons, unchanged. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; those of silver are 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [3] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 35.96%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 26.96%, up 0.01%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 25.83%, down 0.59%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 25.83%, down 0.59% [3] 3.5 Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary said that if China continues to block rare - earth exports, the US may impose additional tariffs on China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that dialogue and cooperation are the right ways. A Fed governor called for more aggressive interest - rate cuts, saying that the Fed's policy is too tight. Another Fed governor said that each Fed meeting is real - time for monetary policy, and the Fed's dual - mandate risks have increased. The US October ISM manufacturing index was 48.7, remaining below the boom - bust line, and the tariff policy still suppresses the manufacturing outlook [3]