Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-04 09:09Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton futures closed higher on Monday, with the support from optimistic demand expectations outweighing the stronger dollar. The December ICE cotton futures contract rose 0.14 cents, or 0.20%, to settle at 65.68 cents per pound. In the domestic market, the supply side shows that the cotton picking and purchasing progress in Xinjiang is accelerating. In the northern region, cotton picking is in the later stage, while in the southern region, it is still in the large - scale picking period. Due to drought and high - temperature in some southern areas, the yield per unit of seed cotton is lower than expected, and the purchasing price is rising. On the demand side, the downstream demand has not fully started, orders are less than expected. As the demand gradually enters the off - season, the market lacks confidence in future demand. Cotton textile enterprises mostly adopt a wait - and - see attitude and replenish inventory based on rigid demand. Overall, the cost of new cotton is solid, which supports the cotton price, but the price is pressured by supply. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate weakly [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 13535, down 65; cotton yarn main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 19795, down 125 [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 109127, up 11097; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions (lots): - 89, down 219 [2]. - Main contract positions: cotton (daily, lots): 567827, down 6089; cotton yarn (daily, lots): 24848, up 677 [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantity: cotton (daily, sheets): 2570, up 76; cotton yarn (daily, sheets): 6, up 2 [2]. 现货市场 - China Cotton Price Index: CCIndex: 3128B (daily, yuan/ton): 14841, down 18; China Yarn Price Index: pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count (daily, yuan/ton): 20520, up 0.24 [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: 1% tariff (daily, yuan/ton): 13263; Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count (daily, yuan/ton): 21217 [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index: FCIndexM: sliding - scale duty (daily, yuan/ton): 14142; Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index: pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count (daily, yuan/ton): 22568, up 26 [2]. Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area (annual, thousand hectares): 2838.3, up 48.3; national cotton output (annual, million tons): 616, up 54 [2]. Industry Situation - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B, yuan/ton): 5679, up 18; industrial inventory: cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 86.1, down 0.9 [2]. - Cotton: import quantity: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 10, up 3; cotton yarn: import quantity: monthly value (monthly, tons): 130000, unchanged [2]. - Imported cotton profit (daily, yuan/ton): 739, down 1; commercial inventory: cotton: national (monthly, million tons): 102.17, down 46 [2]. Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days (monthly, days): 25.24, up 0.39; inventory days: grey cloth (monthly, days): 31.43, up 0.31 [2]. - Cloth output: monthly value (monthly, billion meters): 28.11, up 1.1; output: yarn: monthly value (monthly, million tons): 207.38, up 4.59 [2]. - Monthly clothing and clothing accessories export value (monthly, ten thousand US dollars): 1245324.7, down 169265.7; monthly textile yarn, fabric and products export value (monthly, ten thousand US dollars): 1196651.6, down 42668.6 [2]. Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility (%): 7.79, up 1.52; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility (%): 8.07, up 1.8 [2]. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility (%): 6.72, down 0.88; cotton 60 - day historical volatility (%): 7.72, down 0.04 [2]. Industry News - The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) released the latest data showing that the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season is 25.3996 million tons (last month's forecast was 25.4386 million tons), and the production forecast for the 2024/26 season is 25.3912 million tons. The global cotton consumption forecast is 25.0077 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39%. The ending inventory forecast is 16.2279 million tons (last month's forecast was 15.3787 million tons), a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The ending inventory forecast for the 2024/25 season is 15.8358 million tons [2].