Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-04 09:06Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that tin prices will fluctuate at a high level in the short term. Technically, the decline in positions and price corrections indicate a decrease in the bullish sentiment. It is recommended that previous long positions be held with caution, and attention should be paid to the support levels at 280,000 and 282,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 283,730 yuan/ton, down 2,030 yuan; the 12 - 1 - month contract closing price is -330 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. - The LME 3 - month tin price is 35,915 US dollars/ton, down 265 US dollars. - The main contract holding volume of Shanghai tin is 34,378 lots, down 2,184 lots; the net holding of the top 20 futures is -1,790 lots, down 118 lots. - LME tin total inventory is 2,850 tons, down 25 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 5,919 tons, up 153 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrants are 5,976 tons, up 246 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 285,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 285,960 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of the Shanghai tin main contract is -360 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 74 US dollars/ton, up 34 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 0.87 million tons, down 0.16 million tons. - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 273,400 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 277,400 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan. - The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 184,850 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 110.93 million tons, up 14.48 million tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 19.76 million tons, up 3.1 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Blue Fuan stated that the government will further implement a package of debt resolution plans, replace local government's existing implicit debts, and establish a long - term supervision system for local government debts. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. - Fed Governor Milan believes that Fed policy is too tight and should achieve a neutral interest rate through a series of 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts [3].