Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-04 09:05Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In early October, the progress of sugarcane crushing and sugar production in Brazil slowed down significantly, indicating a weakening production rhythm in the later stage of crushing [2]. - In the domestic market, the forecasted arrival of out - of - quota raw sugar in October is 174,500 tons, and the import volume is expected to decrease month - on - month. Affected by news such as syrup and premixed powder, there is support at the lower level. However, the loose supply - demand situation still exerts pressure on the sugar market, and sugar prices will mainly operate at a low level in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,481 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan; the main contract position is 368,822 lots, a decrease of 3,969 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 7,432, a decrease of 30; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 49,848 lots, an increase of 2,894 lots [2]. - The total forecast of valid warehouse receipts for sugar is 1,586, an increase of 1,000 [2]. Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,057 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan; the estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,122 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan [2]. - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,139 yuan/ton, an increase of 66 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,225 yuan/ton, an increase of 67 yuan [2]. - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; in Nanning, it is 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou, it is 5,730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the planting area of sugarcane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 54,900 tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 449,800 tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 550,000 tons, a decrease of 280,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.2458 million tons, a decrease of 498,200 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,502 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,437 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 334 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 539,100 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1.5917 million tons, a decrease of 184,100 tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.52%, an increase of 0.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 7.32%, an increase of 0.08% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.46%, an increase of 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.83%, a decrease of 0.07% [2]. Industry News - In the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, a total of 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have started crushing, with an expected total output of about 1.4 million tons [2]. - The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) rose 0.22 cents, or 1.50%, to settle at 14.65 cents per pound. The sugarcane harvest in northern Brazil is progressing slowly, while sugar mills in the central - southern region are still gradually shutting down [2]. - In the first half of October 2025, sugar mills in the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 34.037 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%; produced 2.484 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.25%; the sugar - making ratio was 48.24%, higher than 47.33% in the same period last year [2]. - As of October 16 in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season (April 2025 - March 2026), the cumulative sugarcane crushing in the central - southern region of Brazil was 524.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.78%, and the cumulative sugar production was 36.016 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.89% [2].