瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a long - position strategy. The zinc ore import volume has increased, but domestic zinc ore processing fees have been lowered, and sulfuric acid prices have dropped, leading to a significant contraction in smelter profits and restricted growth in refined zinc output. Overseas zinc supply is tight, and the export window has opened. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is weak, with the real estate sector being a drag, and there are some bright spots in the automotive and home appliance sectors due to policy support. Downstream demand recovery is insufficient, domestic inventory accumulation has slowed, LME inventory has decreased, and the spot premium has risen. Technically, the increase in positions and price rise signals a strong long - position sentiment, and attention should be paid to the MA5 support [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main SHFE zinc contract is 22,670 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan; the 12 - 01 contract price spread of SHFE zinc is - 30 yuan/ton, unchanged. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,108 dollars/ton, up 58 dollars. The total open interest of SHFE zinc is 225,814 lots, up 4,126 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 12,756 lots, up 1,900 lots. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 68,197 tons, up 548 tons. The SHFE inventory is 103,416 tons, down 5,752 tons; the LME inventory is 33,825 tons, down 1,475 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,580 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,720 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 90 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 130.71 dollars/ton, up 45.14 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 18,080 yuan/ton, up 690 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 47,900 tons, up 17,700 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0976 million tons, up 21,400 tons; domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 505,400 tons, up 38,100 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - Refined zinc imports are 22,677.51 tons, down 2,979.32 tons; refined zinc exports are 2,477.83 tons, up 2,166.92 tons. The social zinc inventory is 162,200 tons, down 1,200 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, up 10,000 tons; the sales of galvanized sheets are 2.28 million tons, down 90,000 tons. The newly started housing area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the completed housing area is 311.2888 million square meters, up 34.3534 million square meters. Automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 13.54%, up 1%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 13.54%, up 1%. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 10.49%, up 0.98%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 9.42%, up 0.19% [3] 3.7 Industry News - China will further implement a package of debt resolution plans, replace local government's existing implicit debts, and establish a long - term supervision system for local government debts. The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. A Fed governor believes that the Fed's policy is too tight and should achieve a neutral interest rate through a series of 50 - basis - point interest rate cuts [3]