瑞达期货花生产业日报-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In the Henan peanut - producing area, after the weather improved, due to the busy farming season at the grass - roots level, the supply of wheat - stubble peanuts last week was still limited, and the progress of new peanut harvesting and drying was slow. Farmers were reluctant to sell dry and high - quality peanuts at low prices. On the demand side, the operating rate of oil mills across the country was low, some large oil mills had not started operation, the demand from downstream food enterprises was flat, and traders mostly purchased according to their own will, with no obvious market demand [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Peanut main contract closing price: 7,812 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [2] - Peanut main contract trading volume: 44,455 lots, down 24,730 lots [2] - Peanut main contract open interest: 165,434 lots, down 3,033 lots [2] - Peanut exchange warehouse receipts: 0 lots [2] - Net position of the top 20 in peanut futures: - 19,225 lots, up 4,446 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Main circulation price of oil - used peanuts: 7,565.6 yuan/ton, up 15.6 yuan [2] - National average price of peanuts: 7,840 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan [2] - Imported Sudan refined peanut price: 8,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Henan common peanuts price: 7,200 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2] - Shandong common peanuts price: 8,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Estimated peanut production in China: 19 million tons, down 217,000 tons [2] - Global peanut production forecast: 51.74 million tons, up 70,000 tons [2] - Estimated peanut harvest area in China: 4.85 million hectares, down 130,000 hectares [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Operating rate of sample oil mills: 10.28%, up 2.42 percentage points [2] - Monthly import volume of peanut kernels: 34,590 tons, up 8,130 tons [2] - Peanut inventory of sample oil mills: 41,865 tons, up 6,710 tons [2] - Monthly export volume of peanut kernels: 10,390 tons, up 400 tons [2] - Peanut oil processing profit in Henan: 74.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Global peanut ending inventory forecast: 4.21 million tons, down 30,000 tons [2] - Peanut oil processing profit in Shandong: 124.75 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan [2] - Global peanut crushing volume forecast: 19.37 million tons, up 100,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Factory price of first - grade peanut oil: 14,580 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Monthly import volume of peanut oil: 36,409.04 tons, up 5,236.53 tons [2] - Price of first - grade fragrant peanut oil: 15,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Monthly export volume of peanut oil: 826.94 tons, down 470.98 tons [2] - Price difference between peanut oil and soybean oil in Shandong: 5,880 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - Spot price of peanut meal in Rizhao, Shandong: 3,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Peanut oil - meal ratio: 4.24, unchanged [2] - Annual forecast of peanut oil production: 3,491,600 tons, unchanged [2] - Global peanut oil production forecast: 6.32 million tons, up 40,000 tons [2] - Global domestic consumption forecast of peanut oil: 6.24 million tons, unchanged [2] 3.6 Option Market - 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying: 11.35%, up 0.02 percentage points [2] - 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying: 8.63%, up 0.01 percentage points [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options: 11.54%, unchanged [2] - Implied volatility of at - the - money put options: 12.23%, up 0.69 percentage points [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of October 30, 2025, the peanut inventory of domestic peanut oil sample enterprises was 41,865 tons, an increase of 6,710 tons or 19.09% from the previous week [2] 3.8 Key Focus - No news today [2]