瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20251104

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is "Oscillating bearish, pay attention to risk control" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 4, 2025, the RB2601 contract increased positions and declined. Tariff disturbances affected market sentiment, cost - side support weakened, mainstream positions continued to increase short positions, and futures prices were under pressure. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA broke below the 0 - axis [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,044.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan; the position volume was 1,966,544 lots, an increase of 47,527 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 113,052 lots, a decrease of 19,611 lots. The spread between the RB1 - 5 contracts was - 64 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt report of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 142,842 tons, a decrease of 1,798 tons. The spread between the HC2601 - RB2601 contracts was 221 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,250.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,333 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan. The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,310.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,190.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 206.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 785.00 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 15.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei (market price) was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,940.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 145.3924 million tons, an increase of 1.1859 million tons. The inventory of coke in sample coking plants was 374,400 tons, an increase of 700 tons. The inventory of coke in sample steel mills was 6.2888 million tons, a decrease of 43,900 tons. The inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.1957 million tons, a decrease of 103,900 tons. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.73%, a decrease of 3.00%; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.59%, a decrease of 1.33% [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar in sample steel mills was 2.1259 million tons, an increase of 55,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 46.60%, an increase of 1.21%. The inventory of rebar in sample steel mills was 1.7171 million tons, a decrease of 129,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.3081 million tons, a decrease of 66,700 tons. The operating rate of independent electric - arc - furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 73.49 million tons, a decrease of 3.88 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 15.41 million tons, an increase of 660,000 tons. The net export volume of steel was 9.92 million tons, an increase of 910,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 0.50%, a decrease of 1.00%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment was - 13.90%, a decrease of 1.00%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 1.10%, a decrease of 0.90%. The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, a decrease of 54.71 million square meters. The cumulative value of newly - started housing area was 453.99 million square meters, a decrease of 55.98 million square meters. The unsold area of commercial housing was 399.37 million square meters, an increase of 2.92 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - From November 4th, affected by adverse meteorological conditions, some areas in Henan may face moderate to severe pollution risks. Luoyang, Jiaozuo, Jiyuan and other places in Henan launched a heavy - pollution weather orange (Level Ⅱ) early - warning response at 0:00 on November 4th, with the lifting time to be notified later. The US Treasury Secretary said that if China continued to block rare - earth exports, the US might impose additional tariffs on China. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that the results of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur fully demonstrated that dialogue and cooperation were the correct approaches, and threats and pressure were not helpful in solving problems. The China - EU export - control dialogue and consultation was held in Brussels, and both sides had in - depth and constructive communication on issues of mutual concern in the field of export control. They agreed to continue communication to promote the stability and smoothness of the China - EU industrial and supply chains [2]