Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-04 09:04Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The release of previously suppressed demand and the appropriate follow - up of some reserve demand have helped increase new orders and shipments of urea factories. Last week, the inventory of urea enterprises decreased. With appropriate follow - up from downstream reserves, the inventory of urea enterprises is expected to fluctuate little in the short term. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1640 in the short term [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1630 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 80 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 272,271 lots, up 2,518 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 27,015, up 2,461; the exchange warehouse receipts are 3,900, up 2,445 [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui decreased by 20 yuan/ton, while the price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 60 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remained unchanged at 347.5 and 377.5 dollars/ton respectively [2] Industry Situation - Port inventory decreased by 100,000 tons to 110,000 tons, a 47.62% decline. Enterprise inventory decreased by 75,900 tons to 1,554,300 tons, a 4.66% decline. The urea enterprise operating rate increased by 2.29% to 80.32%, and the daily output increased by 5,300 tons to 187,900 tons. Urea exports increased by 570,000 tons to 1,370,000 tons, while the monthly output decreased by 190,010 tons to 5,738,670 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate increased by 3.33% to 31.04%, and the melamine operating rate increased by 1.68% to 49.98%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer decreased by 37 yuan/ton to 116 yuan/ton, and the weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea decreased by 96 yuan/ton to 124 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer decreased by 651,500 tons to 4,661,800 tons, and the weekly output of melamine increased by 1,300 tons to 25,400 tons [2] Industry News - As of October 29, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises decreased by 75,900 tons to 1,554,300 tons, a 4.66% decline. As of October 30, the port inventory decreased by 100,000 tons to 110,000 tons, a 47.62% decline. The resumption of previously overhauled devices has increased domestic urea production, and the production capacity utilization rate has increased by 2.29% to 80.32% [2] Viewpoint Summary - Some previously suppressed demand has been released, and some reserve demand has followed up, increasing new orders and shipments of urea factories. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased last week, and it is expected to fluctuate little in the short term. The compound fertilizer operating rate is expected to adjust slightly and stably this week [2][3] Tips for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]